Research Center

Despite the recovery, the downtrend is dominant in the short term as the VNIndex forms a new bottom. Therefore, traders should stay on the sideline and wait for the next signals.

Based on the General Department of Customs, the prelim export turnover of Vietnam’s textile and garment in October grew only 0.7% yoy and dropped 0.8% mom to USD2.7bn. In October 2022, the export to the US (the largest textile and garment export market of Vietnam) fell -14% yoy, but lifted 3.6% mom, accounting for 37.7% of Vietnam's total textile and garment export value. Overall, in 10M22, Vietnam’s textile and garment export turnover lifted 21.5% yoy to nearly USD31.7bn.

The revenue growth rate of listed pangasius leaped 68% yoy while shrimp exporters inched 6.5% yoy. Meanwhile, the listed pangasius and shrimp exporters' revenue recorded 14.2% qoq and 5.7% qoq export decreases, especially the top tiers, which slowed down quickly after a significant bullish in 2Q22. Despite the upward trend of seafood exporters slowed down in 3Q22, we maintain an OVERWEIGHT rating since we believe that the seafood industry rally is persisting through 4Q22F backed by sound business conditions.

Despite the recovery, the short-term downtrend is dominant as the VNIndex forms a new bottom. Therefore, traders should stay on the sideline and wait for the next signals.

In this case, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for more accurate signal which would appear after the consolidation phase. (Hourly chart)

Last week, trading value slightly increased across the covered warrant market. Particularly, trading value was increased to VND46bn. Besides, trading volume continued to increase, recording at 221mn, up 15% WoW. By underlying asset, covered warrants which have FPT as the underlying asset attracted the most of trading interest, followed by HPG and VPB, mainly driving by CFPT2207 (-48.3%) and CHPG2215 (-21.2%).

Although SBV sustains the support liquidity to commercial banks this week but with has a high funding cost under the pressure of USD outflow. The overnight interbank rate converges to the level that SBV offers in repo and T-bill transactions. We predict that the funding cost in the money market will remain high in the coming weeks.

In Oct, according to the Customs, total fertilizer export volume was 160,219 tonnes (-16% mom, +60% yoy), equivalent to USD88mn (-19% mom, +109% yoy). Vietnam imported nearly 322,000 tonnes of fertilizer (+29% mom, +7% yoy), equivalent to USD154mn (+52% mom, +35% yoy). Based on data we collected, in Sep, urea accounted for about 34% of total fertilizer imported (about 86,000 tonnes), followed by NPK with 28% (about 69,000 tonnes).

In this case, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for more accurate signal. (Hourly chart)

The short-term downtrend is dominant as the VNIndex retests last bottom. Therefore, traders should stay on the sideline and wait for the next signals.