Research Center

This quarter’s top line recorded VND1,367bn (-22% qoq, -16% yoy) which was hit by decreases of all income sources from FVTPL gain, brokerage, IB and margin lending. The operating expenses stayed flat qoq but financial expenses ramped up by 38.4% qoq and 256% yoy. As a result, net profit was hit significantly, downed to VND42bn (-91% qoq, -93% yoy). As of Nov 7, VND is trading at market price of VND10,450, equal to 0.93x TTM PB. Current valuation is lower than 3-year average PB of 1.68x and median PB of 1.53x and approaching -1 SD milestone at around 0.86x.

Foreign selling pressure cooled. Net sell value was USD22mn. Selling activity was mainly absorbed by Materials, Financials, and Real Estate, focusing on HPG, KBC, VIC, and HDB whilst demand concentrated the most on FUESSVFL and such sectors as Consumer Staples and Real Estate, mainly driven by large buy orders on VNM, DGC, VHM and KDH. With ETF flow, inflow surged at Vietnam. Net inflow was USD32mn. The positive flow of money was mainly driven by the strong demand on Finlead, Diamond and Fubon.

PET’s 3Q22 revenue increased by 17% yoy to VND4.5tn mainly driven by merchandise distribution revenue growth of 22% yoy to VND4tn. In 9M22, PET’s revenue rose by 12% yoy to VND12.8tn (fulfilling 64% of full-year guidance), mainly driven by greater sales of smartphones that grew by 16.2% yoy to VND4.8tn. GM improved to 5.6%, +0.5%p yoy in 9M22 thanks to better price discount from suppliers. NPAT slightly rose by 2% yoy to VND177bn, fulfilling 53% of the full-year guidance. We attribute the slower NPAT growth to the allowance of VND166bn for security investment, equal to the temporary loss of 48% from security investment as of end-3Q22.

This quarterly earnings report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the earning growth trend in the steel market. We continue to see the low demand in 4Q22F as bond and property industry issues and interest rate upward pressure for forex control purpose will hinder the consumption demand from end-use buyers.

The short-term downtrend is dominant as the VNIndex closes below the 1,000-pts threshold. Therefore, traders should stay on the sideline and wait for the next signals.

In this case, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for more accurate signal. (Hourly chart)

The bearish momentum has shown no sign of weakness. Besides, there is no signal for the increase of demand near 950-1,000 pts zone. Therefore, investors should stay on the sidelines and take action only when the solid bottom is formed.

VNM released its 3Q22 results, including revenue of VND16.1tn ( -0.7% yoy) and NPAT-MI of VND2.3tn (-21.4% yoy). For 9M22, revenue sustained VND44.9tn (-0.5% yoy) but NPAT-MI declined to VND6.6tn (-20.3% yoy), fulfilling 68% and 60% of our full-year forecasts.

The industry posted a VND10,899bn turnover (+12.7% yoy, +2.3% qoq) and VND827bn NPAT (+29.8% qoq, +13.1% qoq). Overall, the top five companies (VMD, DVN, DHG, CDP, and TRA) accounted for around 52% of the industry turnovers. Surrounded the giant rivals, DHG still maintained its leading position with the highest NPAT of VND262bn (+30.1% yoy, +12% qoq). DBD and OPC emerged as brisk players with GM expansion of 16.3%p/8.3%p yoy in 3Q22.

Long positions on VN30F2211 should be closed after ATO session due to the weakness at 1,000 pts area. For new position, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for more accurate trading signal. (Hourly chart)