18
November
VN30F2111 will be expired on this trading day. Notably, trading signals are invalid due to the increase of market noise. Thus, long positions on VN30F2111 should not be closed and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,510 pts level (Hourly chart).
18
November
The VNIndex closes above the 1,470 pts. Hence, we maintained to expect the index can reach the target price of a small rectangle pattern. The short-term downtrend or contraction may be the opportunity to increase the long position at low prices.
17
November
Long positions on VN30F2111 should not be closed and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,510 pts level (Hourly chart).
17
November
The VNIndex closes below the 1,470 pts, implying the failure of the new rectangle pattern. If the index does not close above the threshold in the next session, the pattern is invalid. In this case, the contraction may be formed. However, the long-term uptrend is intact as the significant indicators show upside. Therefore, the short-term downtrend may be the opportunity to increase long position at low prices.
16
November
The volatility of investor sentiment has increased in the short term. However, the VNIndex maintains its uptrend because of a new rectangle pattern with a target price of 1,530-1,550 pts. Therefore, the traders should hold their long position and focus on leading stocks.
16
November
Long positions on VN30F2111 should not be closed and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,510 pts level (Hourly chart).
16
November
Foreign selling kept overwhelming. Selling activity focused on Real Estate, Materials, and Industrials whilst Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Utilities attracted the most foreign demand. With ETF flow, Vietnam experienced the outflow after attracting demand for 3 consecutive weeks, mainly driven by the divestment across VFMVN30 ETF, MAFM VN30 ETF, and SSIAM VN30 ETF.
15
November
The October performance witnessed the current revival of domestic demand from low-base August. The domestic volume of steel coat recorded 20,975 tonnes (+42.8% mom, +22.9% yoy) while domestic steel pipe volume posted 13,932 tonnes (-20.5% yoy but +136.4% mom) amid the easing lockdown policy.
15
November
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. Oct 2021 Vietnam steel production increased 17.9% mom to 2.65mn tonnes, bringing 10M21 growth to 22.8% yoy (25.6mn tonnes). During Oct 21, we observe that the local demand revived strongly (+41.5% mom). Export saw the decline of 14.4% mom from high-base in September.
15
November
Buy VN30F2111 after ATO session and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,510 pts level (Hourly chart).
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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