08
July
The prelim export turnover of Vietnam’s textile and garment remained optimistic with 16.5% yoy and 13.1% mom, to USD3.6bn in June. The US persisted as the largest textile and garment importer with a USD1.8bn, +13.1% yoy/+11.2% mom, accounting for 50.2% of Vietnam's total textile and garment export value. Overall, in 1H22, Vietnam’s textile and garment export turnover soared 21.4% yoy to USD18.6bn.
08
July
2Q22 trading value was down significantly. Combined 2Q22 ADTV on 3 bourses was VND20.5tn (-34.2% QoQ, -21.8% YoY). Contrast to unfavorable market movements in the second quarter, securities companies did a great job to gain an enormous number of accounts. In 2Q22 separately, there were 1.174mn new accounts (+73.6% QoQ, new high record established). The competition of securities companies in brokerage spotted interesting developments. VPS ended a 13-quarter streak with positive quarterly growth rates and HSC was back to Top 4 brokerage market share.
08
July
Short VN30F2207 near 1,230 pts zone and stop the loss when there is the closing price above 1,240 pts level. (Hourly chart)
08
July
Bullish piercing appears on the VNIndex, implying a bullish signal. However, the downtrend is dominated in the short term with low liquidity. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signal.
07
July
Short VN30F2207 near 1,230 pts zone and stop the loss when there is the closing price above 1,240 pts level. (Hourly chart)
07
July
Based on the new low, the market sentiment has become pessimistic. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signal.
06
July
Economic activities remain strong in the second quarter with an unexpectedly high growth rate due to the fruitful trade and recovering domestic consumption. Given this momentum, we predict that Vietnam’s economy to accelerate in the next quarter. However, the recession would possibly lower economic performance than expected through the global value chain transmission. For Vietnam stock market, we expect that the VNIndex would form a new trough thanks to solid macro indicators and the analysis of cycles and patterns of the VNIndex. Accordingly, the index would possibly reach the threshold of 1,300-1,400 points in 3Q22.
06
July
Long position on VN30F2207 near 1,240 pts area should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,220 pts level. (Hourly chart)
06
July
Market sentiment has become cautious because of the second contraction. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signal. Besides, traders should watch the double bottom pattern as the levels of the two last bottoms are the same.
05
July
Last week, trading activity decreased slightly across the covered warrant market. With foreign trading activity, although the market kept ending up to be net sold, but demand has started to increase. Net sell value was VND1.8bn, down 40% WoW. Notably, covered warrants which have FPT as the underlying asset has attracted most of trading activity for 2 consecutive months, mainly driven by CFPT2203(7.5%).
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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