Tiếng Việt
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13
July
Daily derivatives: The bearish swing still exists
Short position on VN30F2207 near 1,230 pts zone should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price above 1,240 pts level. (Hourly chart)
Research Center
13
July
Market commentary: Bullish Reversal?
Despite the strong rebound, the downtrend is dominant in the short term with low liquidity. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signal.
12
July
Covered warrant 04-08 Jul: STB attracts foreign and domestic trading activity
Last week, trading activity kept decreasing across the covered warrant market. With foreign trading activity, Foreign selling pressure continued to overwhelm demand. Net sell value was VND3.2bn. Notably, covered warrants which have STB as the underlying asset has attracted most of trading activity from foreigners and domestic investors.
12
July
Daily derivatives: Bearish pattern is formed
Short position on VN30F2207 near 1,230 pts zone should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price above 1,240 pts level. (Hourly chart)
12
July
Market commentary: Retest last bottom
The downtrend is dominant in the short term with low liquidity. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signal.
11
July
Fundflow 11 – 15 Jul: Demand on Vietnam’s major ETFs starts to slow down
Market ended up to be net sold. Supply mainly spread to Real Estate, Financials, and Materials whilst demand was absorbed the most by Consumer Staples. With ETF flow, Outflow ticked up across Vietnam after attracting positive flow of money for 3 consecutive months. The negative flow of money was mainly driven by the divestment on VFMVN Diamond and VanEck Vietnam.
11
July
Power – Brief – Nonrated – Hydropower boomed in Jun
Total electricity production in Jun was 24.52bn kWh (+5.1% mom, +2.6% yoy) and the 6M22 aggregate output volume went up to 133.1bn kWh (+3.6% yoy). The unexpectedly high level of rainfall in May and Jun, especially in the North amid the extremely hot season made the hydropower output surge to 11bn kWh in Jun (+33% mom, +71.3% yoy), which made the average free market price (FMP) in May dropped to VND1,136/kWh. It is predicted that there will be 10-12 typhoons and tropical depressions till the end of the year, thus the heavy rainfall is expected to occur in the 2H22F.
11
July
Market commentary: Rebound
Despite the recovery, the downside risk is still intact in the short term. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signal.
11
July
Chart of the day: Confirm bearish market again
In the short term, the downtrend is dominant because of the trending indicator and low liquidity.
11
July
Daily derivatives: Position size should be minimized
Short VN30F2207 near 1,230 pts zone and stop the loss when there is the closing price above 1,240 pts level. As the volatile trading environment still exists, position size should be minimized. (Hourly chart)
Featured Articles
15
March
Point Break
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Outlook 2022 – The Big Uptrend
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
Time to bet on economic recovery?
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Fragile hope of recovery path under the worst outbreak
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
INFLATION: A transient or long-lasting shock?
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.