02
July
For July, we are more optimistics than June as the recent correction with diminishing volume looks like a consolidation period. Therefore, we expect to see the VNIndex resume its uptrend or stop falling at least in July. However, the market may become choppy by the month-end because 2Q business results of listed companies may make many surprises this year.
04
June
As of 02 Jun, our KIS universe was traded at 14.2x its 2020 earnings, higher than 2019-end PE of 13.3x. In terms of technical analysis, the VNIndex is now heading back to 900, its strong support when the pandemic broke out in early February, warning a strong selling pressure there. Although new money may continue to support the market in the coming weeks, we recommend a cautious stance in Jun
29
April
As the pandemic has made significant behavioral changes in production, consumption as well as investment, seasonal effects will be likely ineffective this year. We recommend investors to “DO NOT sell in May and go away” because of potential new local money.
26
March
In a half-full-glass viewpoint, we expect the pandemic will peak in 2Q20. In terms of economy, in our three scenarios, Vietnam will resume its pre-outbreak level in 2H20, ranging from early to late, because domestic spending, inflowing FDI and international trade will soon come back. Assuming a better outlook in the second half, we expect the stock market is providing many bargaining opportunities for both traders and investors.
27
February
It took two weeks since the outbreak for the number of new confirmed cases to peak in China in late January and early February. Therefore, the outbreak in South Korea may progress in the same way. However, we expect that Chinese lesson will help South Korea contain the spreading faster, maybe in early March.
06
February
Although the novel coronavirus will continue to haunt Vietnam stock markets in February, we expect the market will soon calm down if the epidemic peaks by the middle of this month. High volatility is also generating many trading opportunities. As the VNIndex has penetrated below 3xstandard deviation PER band, we expect a mean reverting movement in the coming weeks.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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