![VGC – Earnings Review 3Q2019 [OVERWEIGHT+23.8%] Industrial park in the spotlight](https://kisvn.vn/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/09/page-phantich-m.jpg)
16
February
Using Sum of Part method, we evaluate VGC share at VND22,600 by the end of 2020. Including the VND1,000 cash dividend per share, total expected return is 23.8% at the current market price of VND19,050. Recommend OVERWEIGHT
16
February
We believe that steel industry has a strong growth potential thanks to the inevitable industrialization and urbanization of Vietnam in the long term. However, the operation of Dung Quat and Formosa Ha Tinh factories will reshape the domestic market significantly in the short term. Local competition will be tougher which result in narrowing profitability despite of lower input risk. Therefore, we have a NEUTRAL outlook for steel industry in 2020. Stock pick: HPG
16
February
Based on 4Q19 financial report, we believe that Dung Quat was officially operated in 4Q19 which is in line with our assumption. Therefore, we are going to make no material change to our current forecast for Hoa Phat in 2020
16
February
Although the results are slightly lower than our projection, Viglacera still has a strong growth potential in the long term and thus we are going to make no significant adjustment to our forecast for Viglacera in 2020
16
February
Remarkable growth of pangasius consumption in China makes pangasius remain in the spotlight in seafood industry in 2020. Meanwhile, bread shrimp export to Japan will find support from CPTPP, but be partially overshadowed by price war with global players. In overall, we have a positive outlook about seafood sector in 2020. BUY. Stock pick: VHC, ANV
16
February
We believe that Viglacera has a strong growth potential thanks to the inevitable industrialization and urbanization of Vietnam in the long term. Using Sum of the Parts method, we evaluate VGC share at VND21,700 by the end of 2020. Including the VND1,000 cash dividend per share, total expected return is 26.2% at the current market price of VND18,000. Recommend BUY
16
February
In 2020, we expect the rebound of the U.S. market to offset the 2019-nCoV-induced slowdown of Chinese one. Moreover, the recent price plunge has made VHC share valuation attractive. We revise downward VHC target price to VND37,800 by the end of 2020 but maintain BUY recommendation. Including VND2,000 cash dividend, total 1-year expected return for Vinh Hoan’s share is 18.4%.
16
February
We believe that the current market plunge is overreaction due to the bad 4Q19 performance. In addition, the long-term prospective of PCC1 is attractive based on the growth of power generation part which is to improve earnings quality. Thanks to the operation of the 3 new power plants and Thanh Xuan project, PCC1 will enjoy a fruitful FY2020. Using Sum of the Parts method, we evaluate the PC1 share at VND23,100 by the end of 2020 so that total expected return is 54%. Recommend BUY
16
February
The impact of 2019-nCoV will slow down Vietnam pangasius export to China and makes us more cautious about seafood sector. Therefore, we downgrade the sector rating to HOLD for 2020. Stock pick: VHC, ANV
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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