![ANV – 2Q20 review [Sell] Low export price to hit 2H20](https://kisvn.vn/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/09/page-phantich-m.jpg)
29
July
In 2Q20, Nam Viet recorded revenue of VND884bn (-17% yoy) and NPAT of VND32bn (-79% yoy). We expect Nam Viet’s pangasius export volume to China to lead Nam Viet’s volume growth in 2H20 after this market has fully recovered since June 2020. However, we are concerned that Nam Viet’s revenue will continue to contract and gross margin will improve slowly in 2H20 as we expect pangasius export price to remain low.
29
July
Credit provision jumped to VND440bn in 2Q20 from VND93bn in 1Q20. Notably, the credit provision uplift in 2Q20 (~VND330bn) mostly came from interbank loans which is unusual amid ample liquidity in the local banking system. Provision for customer loans was stable at VND114bn without significant change in assets quality, except VND9tn of COVID-19 restructured loans.
28
July
VCB reported 2Q20 controlling-interest NP at VND4.6tn, up 5.7% yoy and 10.3% qoq although its TOI decreased by 5.9% yoy and 10.6% qoq to VND8tn. As of June 2020, COVID-19 restructured loans reached VND11.7tn (~1.5% of loan book) on total registered loan book of VND50-60tn.
23
July
In 21 July, ACB hosted a quarterly meeting with investors and analysts. 1H20 PBT was up just 5% yoy to VND3.8tn (VND1.9tn for 2Q20, down slightly by 1.1% yoy). With that, the bank completed ~50% of the 2020 PBT target.
21
July
Last week, we had paid visits to some banks in Hanoi. In overall, they have a positive view about the recovery of local economy and industry in the coming quarters as compared to the previous months, which are thanks to 1) supportive policies by the Government, 2) a “new normal life” with virus-free, and 3) resilient domestic demand.
01
July
On 30 Jun, we joined Masan Group’s 2020 AGM to update about its business situation, which showed Masan Group’s ambition to become future leader in Consumer sector. Per management, Masan Group will reach positive EPS in 2Q20, which is mainly driven by robust revenue growth of Masan Consumer and ongoing strong revenue growth of MEATDeli fresh meat.
30
June
The pandemic has weighted on FY20F profit after tax guidance of KBC, per management on its AGM June 29. The company guided for two scenerios of which FY20F profit after tax could be at 1) VND816bn, -21.6% yoy and 2) VND1,000bn, -3.9% yoy. We remain optimistic on KBC outlook thanks to its strong sales momentum in leassing in Quang Chau industrial park.
26
June
In 1H20, Vinamilk estimates revenue to reach VND29,733bn (+7% yoy) and NPAT to reach VND5,872bn (+3% yoy). As recovering late since May 2020, Vinamilk expects school milk program to have higher revenue contribution in 2H20. For overall 2020, Vinamilk targets to reach yoy revenue growth of 5.7%, which are mainly driven by higher average selling price thanks to better product mix while sales volume will remain stable.
26
June
On 25 June, Hoa Phat held the 2020 AGM. Key issues covered were its plan in 2020 and Dung Quat update. We believe the positive 2020 plan and 2Q20 results came from the operation of Dung Quat to double long steel capacity and favorable market condition of agriculture segment.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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