11
February
This quarterly earnings report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the earning growth trend in the steel market. In 4Q21, we saw a net margin declined in most steel makers. We expect that export and accelerated infrastructure spending will be the key drivers in 1Q22, however, the gross margin compress will continue due to global supply restraint of input materials and narrowed HRC gaps.
09
February
The company held an analyst meeting on Feb 9 to give the audience a walkthrough of of the upcoming business expansion plan.For full year, NVL’s net revenue was pegged at VND14.9tn, 196.5% yoy while its NPATMI plunged to VND3.2tn, -17.6% yoy due to the absence of a VND3.4tn financial gain from divestment in Phu Dinh Port company in 2020. The results are falling short of the company guidance at 54.2%/84.4%. - The company aims to expand at least to 57,200ha in 2030F with 8,800ha targeted within short-term horizon.
28
January
Vinhomes sustained its 4Q21 splendid results of a VND11.9tn NPATMI, +3.7% yoy, 6.9% qoq, topping those listed in the Vietnamese equity market. Marking the three consecutive earnings quarters of over VND10-11tn, 4Q21 earnings came it with a surprise. The company aims to target a rebounding presale guidance in 2022F. However, the earnings estimates could be retreated.
28
January
Khang Dien House Trading and Investment JSC’s (KDH) 4Q21 revenue reached VND590bn, -54.3% yoy and NPATMI posted VND414.3bn, 8.3% yoy. We estimate that ~ 99 units in the high-rise Lovera Vista project and 3 units in Verosa were delivered in 4Q21. The company also recorded a VND201bn other income from acquiring 98.9% stake in Nguyen Thu Real Estate company. No information was disclosing about the land bank except KDH could console a VND729bn inventory.
28
January
The monthly report reflect the movement of Vietnam seafood export activities. Dec 2021 Vietnam seafood export value stayed brisk by +29% yoy to USD940mn backed by strong growth of key products.
25
January
4Q21 NPATMI of VND361bn plunged largely in the absence of the unexpected revaluation gain in 4Q20. In 4Q21, revenue from product handover was remarkable mainly thanks to from handover Akari City of 1,525 units, equivalent to VND3.5tn. The result was lower than our estimation of 1,800 units. Together with a VND429bn goodwill income booked in 1Q21 thanks to a further 30.1% stake acquisition to 65.1% of Waterfront (Izumi) project, 2021 NPATMI reached VND1,071bn, +28.2% yoy.
20
January
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the development in the steel market. Dec 2021 Vietnam steel production decreased slightly 5.7% mom to 2.53mn tonnes, bringing 2021 growth to 18.9% yoy(30,8mn).
20
January
2021 is a great year so far for NKG. By successfully exploiting the export opportunity, NKG has fully offset the weak domestic demand caused by COVID-19 in 2021. The 2021 total sale volume came in at 1,083,621 tonnes, +54% yoy on the back of the steel coat volume growth of 65.4% yoy to 929,527 tonnes and the steel pipes growth of 8.7% yoy to 154,094 tonnes.
16
December
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. Nov 2021 Vietnam steel production increased 1.1% mom to 2.68mn tonnes, bringing 11M21 growth to 21.4% yoy (28.3mn tonnes). During Nov 21, we observe that the local demand revival pulled back (-18.4.% mom, -25.9% yoy). Export-driven volume was at a stable level during 2H21 - 685,167 tonnes.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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