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Based on our estimate, 4Q21 aggregated revenue of 23 listed hydropower companies jumped 22.5% yoy, while 4Q21 aggregated NPATMI increased by 32.9% yoy. Due to the waning effect of La Nina in the north, EVN will shift its focus to coal thermal plants to ensure power supply. The HFO Singapore, a reference for gas price supplied to domestic gas-fired power plants could spike in 1Q22F due to supply shortage and Russia – Ukraine tension. We think EVN will prioritize the cheaper coal-fired power plants driven by their lower than gas supply price. Thus, we expect the revenue of coal-fired plants stays solid than gas-fired firms in 1Q22F.

Based on our estimate, 4Q21 aggregated revenue of listed milk companies, brew and sugar grew by 9.8%, 7.7%, and 26.4% yoy, respectively. The 4Q21 aggregated NPATMI of dairy and sugar producers increased by 4.2% and 15% yoy, respectively. Meanwhile, the NPATMI growth of listed beer companies was softer at -19.7% yoy after bottoming at -66% in 3Q21 due to tepid domestic demand in the lockdown period. Most producers have plans to increase selling prices in 1Q22F to make up for the higher input costs. Big players such as VNM, SAB have just increased prices by about 3-5% in late Dec 2021 and that will support GMs in 1Q22F.

4Q21 aggregated revenue of 17 listed fertilizer producers jumped 86.9% yoy, while 4Q21 aggregated NPATMI soared 1,410.8% yoy. The NPATMI grew sharply and reached an all-time high in 4Q21. The stronger net profit growth was attributed to gross profit margin expansion. Demand for agricultural products remains abundant in 2022F backed by urges to ensure food security after COVID-19 pandemic and to compensate for the crop reduction due to climate changes.

On Feb 18, PDR set up an analyst meeting to brief their 4Q21 results, land bank acquisition and development plan in 2022F-24F. The company claims to acquire at least 5,531ha as of end-2021 (459ha as of end-2020) in 8 provinces of which 18-20% is secured for development while the remainders are sought for a legal license. Breaking down by type of purpose, 28% of the total land bank is monetised for industrial estates. In detail, PDR plans to monetize a 24ha logistic area in Cai Mep-Vung Tau province and 394ha Cao Lanh industrial park in Dong Thap province in 2022F

On Feb 18 analyst meeting, Bamboo Capital Group (BCG) introduced us to the 4Q21 results and their 2022F business plans regarding real estate development and renewable energy strategy. - The net debt to equity is geared to 1.55-1.56x in 2020-21, raising concerns about their leverage. The company has yet provided its fund plan but could issue 60mn shares in 2022F to reduce this ratio.

The sector aggregated revenue was pegged at VND20.4tn (+92% yoy) in 4Q21 and VND60.5tn (+109% yoy) in 2021. In tandem with the revenue growth, aggregated profit after tax grew robustly with VND6.6tn (+88% yoy) in 4Q21 and VND21.5tn (+115% yoy) in 2021. We estimate that the ADTV in 1Q22F continues to stay at VND22tn-23tn (+20% yoy). Revenue from brokerage and margin lending could account for a major proportion in revenue and net profit structure. Therefore, revenue performance in 1Q22F could be secured with positive YoY results.

This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. Jan 2022 Vietnam steel production decreased 6.6% mom to 2.36mn tonnes. During Jan 22, we observe that the impressive total construction steel consumption with 905,885 tonnes (+35.5% yoy, -0.7% mom). In which, export construction steel volume was at 218,388 tonnes, increasing by 87.8% yoy and 14.5% mom.

The January performance witnessed the rosy export volume while local demand was still weak. The domestic volume of steel coat recorded 14,615 tonnes (+2.4% mom, -33.6% yoy) while domestic steel pipe volume posted 11,576 tonnes (+11.7% you, -33.6% mom).

This quarterly earnings report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the earning growth trend in the steel market. In 4Q21, we saw a net margin declined in most steel makers. We expect that export and accelerated infrastructure spending will be the key drivers in 1Q22, however, the gross margin compress will continue due to global supply restraint of input materials and narrowed HRC gaps.