07
April
Compared to Feb, fertilizer production in Mar recovered with 597,800 tonnes (+10% mom and +2% yoy). Fertilizer export volume in Mar had modest amount at 90,000 tonnes, up 80% mom but down 30% yoy. While the export price in Mar was estimated at USD544/tonne (+5% mom and +76% yoy), the import price was USD400/tonne (-18% mom but +43% yoy).
06
April
On April 5, VIC released its audited 2021 balance sheet featuring an NPATMI profit of VND367.2bn vs a loss of VND453.7bn in the preliminary report. The 2021 NPATMI in the audited income statement recorded less loss to VND2.5tn vs -VND2.7tn in the prelim result. The Ho Chi Minh Exchange (HSX) removed VIC from the margin list and could add back in Aug after the reviewing VIC's semi-annual financial statement,
04
April
On April 2nd, we tuned in to QNS’s AGM session which gave the audience a walkthrough of the upcoming business plan, 2022F guidance, and optimistic long-term strategy. In 1Q22, QNS recorded a volume of milk segment of 54.3mn litters (+13.6% yoy), the revenue of nearly VND877bn (+21% yoy). The growth rate of 1Q22 revenue was high due to hiking average selling price by about 7% yoy in1Q22 and the low base caused by the Covid-19 pandemic in 1Q21.
01
April
In 1Q22, Vietnam seafood export surged 40% yoy to USD2,427.4mn, driving by +88% yoy of pangasius export value, +35% yoy of shrimp export value, and +55% yoy of tuna export value. Seafood export to main markets increased strongly in 1Q22 as +84% yoy in China market, +66% yoy in US market and +69% yoy in EU market.
01
April
STK held an AGM session on March 31st to articulate the business plan, coming out with optimistic business guidance. The company targets a VND2,605.7bn revenue, +27.6% yoy and a VND300.2bn NPAT, +7.8% yoy in 2022F. A 15% cash dividend at par will be paid this year. Based on guidance of 2022F profit, 12MF PE is 14.87x and 12MF PB is 3.02x, higher than 2-year median of 11.33x and 1.99x, respectively.
31
March
On Mar 31, REE Corp (REE) held the Annual General Meeting. While revenue is expected to soar up to VND9,247bn (+59.2% yoy) in 2022F, NPATMI only edges up 11.1% yoy to VND2,061bn due to the high proportion of M&E in revenue (42.5%) when net margin of M&E is only 5-6%, per management. Based on guidance of 2022F profit, 12MF PE is 14.1x and 12MF PB is 1.6x, slightly higher than the 2-year median of 10x and 1.4x, respectively.
30
March
MCM sets conservative FY2022F guidance of VND3,122bn revenue, +6.7% yoy and VND343.5bn NPAT, +7.6% yoy. Per management, the dairy industry is being affected by an inflationary cost, in which, the prices of animal feed, especially concentrate increased by 40-50% yoy, it happened worldwide.
29
March
On Mar 29, SZC made an AGM presentation briefing for the upcoming business expansion plan. Key issues covered were the 2022F guidance and their long-term targets. In 2022F, SZC’s earnings guidance retreats by 43.2% yoy despite a flattish revenue growth forecast of 7.3% yoy, per management. Based on management's guidance of 2022F profit, 12MF PE is 42.3 times and 12MF PB is 4.7 times, remarkably higher than the 2-year median of 17.2x and 2.7x, respectively.
29
March
On Mar 29, Petrolimex (PLX) held the 2022 extraordinary Annual General Meeting to elect the Board of Management and Board of Supervisors members for 2021-2026F. It is the 1st time PLX elects an independent BoM member. The company also mentioned about its divestment plans in PJICO and PG Bank in 2022F and its petroleum import plan in 2022F in the context of decreasing supply from Nghi Son Oil Refinery plant.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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