15
April
GAS sets 2022F guidance of VND80tn revenue (+1% yoy), and VND8.8tn PBT (-21.4% yoy), the plan is based on the scenario of Brent oil at USD60. In 1Q22, the company announced preliminary revenue and PBT are VND25.3tn (+44% yoy) and above VND3tn (+13.8% yoy), respectively, per management. GAS estimates gas sales volume is 1.9bn m3 in 1Q22.
15
April
On April 15, TIP made an AGM presentation briefing for the upcoming business expansion plan. In 2022F, the company offers unconsolidated guidance with a VND175bn revenue (+6.5% yoy) including around VND30-35bn interest income and a VND85bn NPATMI (0% yoy). The revenue estimates are major attributed to the land rental and related services.
15
April
In 1Q22, TCBS has successfully overtaken 4th place in HSX market share from HCM. Market share was 5.55% in 1Q22, still in-line with upward trend that TCBS has maintained from 2021. On margin lending market, TCBS also ranked 3rd place when provided VND14.42tn (+265% yoy). The company owns a trading platform with a modern interface, consistent connection, and various financial products that can fit either beginners (F0) or experienced traders/investors. Full-year 2021 revenue recorded VND5,195bn (+59% yoy) and profit was flourished with VND3,049bn (+115% yoy).
14
April
In 2022, we forecast that the seafood export value could reach USD9.2bn (+5.4% yoy). The validity of tariffs in FTAs sharpens the Vietnam fishery’s competitive edges and that bolsters export growth. Our Overweight rating on Vietnam’s seafood industry is based on the strong potential earnings growth for pangasius producers backed by the sustainable export demand.
14
April
We value VNM using a DCF (70%) and PE (30%) methodology. We maintain our HOLD rating with our target price of VND83,900. Our target price implies a target 2022F PE of 18.9x, which is equal to its peers. The sluggish outlook has been relatively reflected in the share price, VNM has underperformed the market by 20% over the last six months. Therefore, we maintain our Hold rating despite the subdued outlook and cheap valuation. At our target price of VND83,900, the upside is 14.9%.
08
April
The input-price volatility caused by the geopolitical tension and the pent-up demand for the energy post-COVID19 would compress the company’s margin in 2022F. We estimate gross margin contraction by 4.4%p from 27.4% in 2021 to 23.0% in 2022F. The 1Q22 NPATMI is forecasted at VND8,900bn, +27.7% yoy.
08
April
On April 7th, FPT made an AGM presentation briefing for the 2022F business plan and the long-term business expansion plan. FPT sets 2022F guidance of VND42.4tn revenue (+19% yoy), and VND7.6tn PBT (+20.2% yoy), this growth guidance is similar to 2021. Particularly, per management, the 2022F revenue estimate consists of some key contributors: Technology of VND24.9tn (+21.1% yoy), Telecommunications of VND14,6tn (+14.8% yoy) and Education, Investment & Others of VND2.96tn (32.5% yoy). The 2022F PBT guidance comprises of Technology with VND3,360bn (+19.3% yoy), Telecommunications with VND2,812bn (+17.4% yoy), and Education, Investment & Others with VND1,446tn (+28.4% yoy).
07
April
In 3M22, aggregate output volume went up 4.9% yoy to 63.03bn kWh thanks to economy recovery, in which hydropower and renewable energy are the biggest beneficiaries. Total coal volume supplied by Vinacomin (TKV) and Dong Bac Group were only 77% and lacked 1.36 million tonnes compared to contracted volume. Some coal-fired power plants are operating at 60-70% of capacity. EVN predicted a shortage of 3,000 megawatts of electricty.
07
April
Trading value in 1Q22 was VND31.2tn (-7.1% QoQ) thanks to high liquidity in Jan and Mar. Number of of new accounts created new high record in March with 270,636 accounts. At end-Mar, accumulated number of accounts was 4.95mn. The ratio of domestic individuals accounts overpopulation is 5% which is 2025 target for the stock market. In term of HSX's brokerage market share, VPS expands their market share to 17.94%. SSI and HCM continue to lost their pieces while VND and TCBS slightly uplifted market share.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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