15
September
The August performance witnessed impressive domestic sales volume, especially, construction steel with the growth of 70.6% yoy, 29.5% mom to 386,990 tonnes. The total August domestic sales volume increased by 23.5% yoy, 34.5% mom to 601,649 tonnes.
15
September
Hydropower output surged to 10.7 kWh in Aug (+30% yoy) thanks to favorable weather conditions. In 1H22, the mixed coal price supplied to domestic power plants had increased 30-35% yoy. We predict the coal price will keep its rising trend. As La Nina is expected to wane since early 2023, coupled with shrinking gas input price, we believe EVN will mobilize thermal power, especially gas-fired power in 2023F.
15
September
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During August 22, we observed an improvement in domestic sales volume while export sales volume was still weak.
12
September
In August 2022, Vietnam’s prelim seafood export recorded USD917mn, up 56.0% yoy mainly assisted by the low base in 2021. Pangasius export increased 85.9% yoy while shrimp export decreased 4.7% yoy in August since shrimp export strongly reduced 33% yoy and 18% yoy in US and China markets, respectively.
09
September
PAN estimates 3Q22F business results with a VND3,643bn revenue (+13% qoq and +43% yoy) and a VND140bn NPAT (-39% qoq and +92% yoy). The gross margin could fall from 21% in 2Q22 to 18% in 3Q22F due to expensive input material prices. Overall, PAN could record a VND9,815bn revenue (53.3% yoy) and a VND537bn NPAT (131.7% yoy), fulfilling 69/65% of their annual guidance in 9M22F.
09
September
Flat-steel sector has overperformed the broader market throughout 2021 as they have benefitted from global supply disruption caused by COVID-19. In 2022, however, we reiterate a Neutral rating on the Flat-steel sector as we see multiple headwinds upcoming amid high-inflation and central banks' policies concerns.
08
September
The prelim export turnover of Vietnam’s textile and garment remained robust with a growth of 51.1% yoy and 8.7% mom, reaching USD4bn in August. The US persisted as the largest textile and garment importer with a USD1.74bn, +31.6% yoy/-3.0% mom, accounting for 43.6% of Vietnam's total textile and garment export value. Overall, in 8M22, Vietnam’s textile and garment export turnover soared 24.5% yoy to USD26.3bn.
05
September
PVD posted 1H22 results with VND2.7tn revenue (+60.9% yoy), and VND116bn loss (vs a loss of VND98bn in 1H21) since old drilling contracts were already signed in 2021 with low Jack-up (JU) day rates. The South East Asia drilling market started to warm and jack-up day rate improved significantly in late 2Q22 due to high oil prices. PVD expects the better JU day rate to improve its earnings from 3Q22F onward.
31
August
Retail performance in 2Q22 witnessed a remarkable improvement, after the government’s successful control of Covid-19 and gradual recovery of the economy. The reopening also ensures the fluent input flows that gradually balance the GPM to the normal level before Covid-19. Retailers in informatiom communication technology (ICT), automobiles, personal goods, airport witnessed a revenue growth of 13/35/83/199% yoy in 2Q22.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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