![HPG-Note-[HOLD]-Is bow’s string at full draw?](https://kisvn.vn/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/09/page-phantich-m.jpg)
16
December
As we see many headwinds over short-term for steel industry and the company, we maintain the HOLD rating for HPG stock. As we see HPG has been stepping in an extreme condition, like an arrow at full draw, any improvement in the situation will be more likely to push the company moves toward its new height.
14
December
On Dec 12, we tuned in to DBD’s AM presentation briefing for the upcoming business expansion plan. The company expects 2022F’s revenue/NPAT could be above VND1,450bn (-7% yoy) and VND250bn (+32% yoy) which are mixed with AGM targets of a VND1,700 revenue and a VND171bn NPAT. DBD expects the EU-GMP factory could be approved in 2025F, which will help the company to achieve a VND3,000bn revenue in 2025F.
13
December
Revenue VND893bn (-11.9% mom and -10.3% yoy). In which, the pangasius revenue dropped 20.1% mom and -22.2% yoy backed by the decrease of the average selling price (-21.5% mom and +1.8% yoy) and volume export (+8.3% mom and -23.2% yoy). Of note, only China export increased by 12.5% mom while export market fell 10% to 12% mom. 11M22 revenue increased by 59.6% yoy to VND12,738bn, fulfilling 94% of our 2022F forecast.
13
December
On Dec 12, we attended NLG’s analyst meeting day, and the presentation was largely centered on the financial position, 2022F guidance, and contract sale. NLG revises down its VND23.3tn contract sales to VND12.3tn in 2022F, 2.08x higher than 2021. The company blames the slower-than-expected legal frameworks and unanticipated soon dry-up of mortgage loans for their missing of guidance especially the Can Tho project, Izumi project
12
December
According to the Customs, in Nov, total fertilizer export volume was more than 92,000 tonnes (-43% mom, -34% yoy), equivalent to USD54mn (-38% mom, -32% yoy). This disappointing result was predictable as the Winter-Spring crop was happening in Vietnam. Fertilizer producers had to prioritize the domestic market first.
09
December
The prelim export turnover of Vietnam’s textile and garment dropped 5.2% yoy but grew 7.0% mom to USD2.9bn in November. In November, the export to the US (the largest textile and garment export market of Vietnam) fell 18.5% yoy, but lifted 18.3% mom, accounting for 41.7% of Vietnam's total textile and garment export value. Overall, in 11M22, Vietnam’s textile and garment export turnover lifted 18.7% yoy to nearly USD34.6bn.
06
December
PLX adjusted its 2022F guidance from VND186tn revenue (+10.1% yoy) and VND3.1tn PBT (-19.1% yoy) in June to VND240tn revenue (+42.0% yoy), and VND300bn PBT (-89.4% yoy) due to abnormal difficulties. Per the company, the petroleum business is estimated to lose VND1,450bn due to towering inventory provision. The company estimates inventory provision of over VND600bn in 4Q22 and VND3,200bn for the full-year 2022F
30
November
According to GSO estimate, crude oil exploitation in Nov stayed flat at 736,000 tonnes (+0% mom, 1% yoy). In the contrast, crude oil exports and imports rose strongly mom to 300,000 tonnes (+100% mom, -14.3% yoy), and 1.7 mn tonnes (+70% mom, +54.5% yoy). Petroleum production in Nov was up slightly by 6.3% mom to 1.7 mn tonnes. Petroleum imports went up strongly to 800,000 tonnes (+33.3% mom, +42.9% yoy). Oppositely, petroleum export volume went down significantly to 70,000 tonnes (-46.2% mom, -65.0% yoy).
30
November
In 10M22, TLG’s net revenue rose by 43% yoy to VND3tn. NPAT also grew 106% yoy to VND420bn. Up to 10M22, TLG has fulfilled 92% of revenue guidance and surpassed 150% of NPAT guidance. The Center warehouse at Le Minh Xuan industrial park has launched in Oct 2022. TLG also inaugurated B2 factory in Dong Nai in Oct 2022 with total investment amount of VND230bn.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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