![Agricultural – [Non-rated] – Brief – 2022 was a good year](https://kisvn.vn/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/09/page-phantich-m.jpg)
05
January
According to the GSO estimate, in Dec, the total agriculture export value was USD1,713mn (-9% mom, -6% yoy). In which, rubber accounted for 21% of total export value, followed by coffee (18%) and rice (17%).
05
January
PET revenue in 2022F inched by 2.3% yoy to VND18tn (fulfilling 90% of full-year guidance). PET’s Nov performance tumbled 27% yoy to VND1.5tn net revenue driven by the decline of distribution revenue by 31% yoy. PET’s revenue in Nov 2022 decreased by 10% mom, attributed to the drop in laptop & IT devices sale by 45% mom, due to peak sales in Oct to avoid the impact of forex rising. PET is facing tumbling demand and supply on ICT products in 4Q22 and 2023F. In 2023F, PET will prioritize improving PBT and keeping the stable cash flow for the core business operation.
26
December
In November, TCM posted decent business results with revenue of USD13.9mn (+8.4% yoy, +2.3% mom) and NPAT of USD0.8mn (+470% yoy, +0% mom mainly thanks to better cost management and savings on Covid-related expenses compared to November 2021). Overall, in 11M22, the company achieved USD170.3mn (+23% yoy) in revenue and USD10.6mn (+108% yoy) in NPAT, fulfilling 96% and 99% of its 2022F guidance, respectively.
23
December
TNG posted a positive November performance with revenue of VND507bn (+16% yoy) and NPAT remained unchanged at VND20.7bn. Overall, in 11M22, the company achieved a VND6,336bn revenue (+27% yoy) and a VND277bn NPAT (+29% yoy), fulfilling 106% and 99% of its 2022F guidance, respectively. We expect TNG to finish 2022 successfully with revenue and NPAT respectively fulfill 114% and 106% full-year guidance.
22
December
We witnessed the bounce-back of construction steel sales volume in Nov. Total Nov steel sales volume posted 509,767 tonnes, decreasing by 13.7% yoy and 9.4% mom, which caused by weak domestic and global demand.
22
December
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During Nov 22, we observed a slight improvement in sales volume on m-o-m basis.
22
December
We witnessed an improvement in sales volume in Nov. Total Nov steel sales volume posted 66,089 tonnes, falling by 34.9% yoy but increasing 31.3% mom.
22
December
We witnessed the slight improvement in sales volume in Nov. Total Nov steel sales volume posted 113,543 tonnes, dropping by 40.4% yoy but slightly increasing by 4.4% mom.
16
December
We revise up 2022F revenue and NPAT to VN13,900bn and VND2,290bn, +2.6% /27.3% compared to our previous estimates assisted by the surge of pangasius export in seasonal demand in most markets. Yet, We adjust downward 2023F revenue/NPAT estimates by -18.8%/-9.5%, to reflect the softer pangasius revenue growth arising from weaker demand and high inventory in key markets. As such, We downgrade our Rating from BUY to HOLD in response to an expensive cost of capital and weaker earning business.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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