21
September
The stock market recoveries significantly during the session with liquidity at a normal level, showing positive signals. However, the downside risk is still intact as selling pressure around the important resistance zone of 1,240-1,250 pts may appear again. Therefore, investors should stand aside and carefully observe the next movements of the market.
20
September
Although the stock market slows down after deep loss sessions, the downside risk is still present as the VNIndex closes above the 20-period moving average. Therefore, investors should stand aside and carefully observe the next movements of the market.
19
September
Selling pressure intensifies during the session, causing the stock market to have a deep loss day by more than 1%. That means the downside risk is still intact. Therefore, investors should stand aside and carefully observe the next movements of the market.
18
September
massive outflow in 7 consecutive weeks has raised the red flag for the unstable flow of money in Vietnam. In this case, we expect that the flow of money across Vietnam could continue to be unstable in upcoming period and outflow could continue to be active.
18
September
Although the stock market increases slightly again with liquidity at a normal level, the downside risk around the important resistance zone of 1,240-1,250 pts is still present. Therefore, investors should stand aside and carefully observe the next movements of the market.
18
September
Although the high volatile period is active and the current bullish swing is paused, the wider charts still support the bullish trend and the bearish reversal could not occur in the short-term. However, market leg is still unclear. Thus, investors should continue hold the current positions on leading stocks but margin trading should be avoided during this period.
15
September
The stock market has a 3rd loss session in the week with liquidity at a high level. This shows investors' sentiment towards the market is relatively cautious and the downside risk is still intact. Therefore, investors should stand aside and carefully observe the next movements of the market.
14
September
Selling pressure intensifies again during the session with liquidity increasing suddenly, causing the VNIndex to continue encounter difficulties approaching the strong resistance zone again. That means the downside risk is still present. Therefore, investors should stand aside and carefully observe the next movements of the market.
13
September
The stock market increases strongly during the session with liquidity at a normal level, showing a positive signal. The uptrend is still intact, however, the downside risk at the important resistance zone of 1,240-1,250 pts may appear again. Therefore, investors should stand aside and observe the next movements of the market. The next sessions, if the VNIndex successfully surpassed the 1,250-pts threshold with high liquidity, investors could open again long positions.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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