20
February
Despite the third recovery, the downtrend is dominant in the short term because of high selling pressure at high-level prices. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signals.
20
February
There is the strong supply near 1,120 pts zone as well as market leg is unclear. Therefore, investors should reduce the positions on leading stocks and wait for more accurate signal for the upcoming market leg.
17
February
The short-term uptrend from Nov 2022 may be reversed as (1) business activities of companies face difficulties (reduced net income) due to the slowdown of the global economy (2) pressure of the maturity of corporate bonds in 2023 with a net value of VND82tn in 2Q23 and VND114tn in 3Q23. We expect the market may resume to a bearish trend in the short term and then form an important bottom from May 2023 to Sep 2023. The target price of this bottom is a range of 780-910 points.
16
February
The downtrend is dominant in the short term as the VNIndex closes below the 100-period and 50-period moving averages. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signals.
15
February
In the short term, the downtrend is dominant as the VNIndex closes below the 100-period and 50-period moving averages. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signals.
14
February
The VNIndex closes below the 100-period and 50-period moving averages, implying a downtrend in the short term. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signals.
13
February
Foreign demand has slowed down but the market kept ending up to be net bought. With ETF flow, inflow across Vietnam kept decreasing, recording at USD9mn, a 4-month low. Inflow across Vietnam has slowed down for 2 consecutive weeks as well as inflow has not spread to major ETFs which is the sign of weakness. Thus, there is the high probability for outflow to occur in upcoming weeks
13
February
The downside risk is still intact in the short term as the VNIndex retests the 50-period and 100-period moving averages. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signals.
13
February
In this case, the downside is still intact due to high selling pressure around 1,100-pts threshold. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signals.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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