24
March
Despite the third recovery, the downside risk is still intact as the VNIndex retests 1,050-pts threshold. That shows a downtrend in the short term. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines.
23
March
Despite the second recovery, the VNIndex retests 1,050-pts threshold, showing a downtrend in the short term. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines.
22
March
Despite the recovery, the VNIndex closes below the significant moving averages, showing a downtrend in the short term. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines.
21
March
The VNIndex closes below the significant moving averages, showing a downtrend in the short term. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines.
20
March
FForeign demand came back despite supply remained at 3-week average (USD230mn) and pushing the market to end up to be net bought. Net buy value was USD98mn, a 2-month high. With ETF flow, the inflow has come back to Vietnam, but demand is still weak. Although there was the active inflow, demand focused only on Fubon ETF whilst other major ETFs such as VFMVN30 ETF, VFMVN Diamond, VNFin Lead, and KIM Growth VN30 ETF experienced the outflow.
20
March
The stock market shows a consolidation phase or sideway trend in the short term. However, the downside risks are still intact in the medium term due to (1) the low liquidity, (2) the slowdown of the global economy (3) the pressure of the maturity of corporate bonds from May to Sep 2023. We expect the market to resume a downtrend and then form an important bottom from May 2023 to Sep 2023. The target price of this bottom is a range of 780-910 points.
20
March
In the short term, the selling pressure is still intact around high prices such as the 1,100-pts threshold, implying the downside risk. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines.
20
March
There is the strong supply near 1,050 pts zone. The rebound phase could be extent only when 1,100 pts zone is broken. Therefore, investors should reduce the positions on leading stocks and wait for more accurate signal for the upcoming market leg.
17
March
In the short term, the selling pressure is still intact around high prices such as the 1,100-pts threshold. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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