29
August
The downside risk is still present as the VNIndex closes below the 20-period moving average. Therefore, investors should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signals. In the next sessions, if the VNIndex remains above 1,200-pts with high liquidity, the selling signal formed on August 18, 2023 may be not right.
28
August
In the short term, the downside risk is still present as the VNIndex closes below the 20-period moving average. Therefore, investors should reduce the portion of stock in their portfolios and wait for the next signals. In the next sessions, if the VNIndex surpasses the important resistance level of 1,200 pts with high liquidity, the selling signal formed on August 18, 2023 may be not right.
25
August
The downside risk is still present as the VNIndex still ends below the 20-period moving average. Therefore, investors should reduce the portion of stock in their portfolios and wait for the next signals. In the next sessions, if the VNIndex surpasses the important resistance level of 1,200 pts with high liquidity, the selling signal formed at the end of the previous week may be not right.
24
August
The stock market experiences a significant decrease in session with low liquidity, showing investors’ caution sentiment. Besides, the downside risk is still present as the VNIndex closes below the 50-period moving average. Therefore, investors should reduce the portion of stock in their portfolios and wait for the next signals.
23
August
Lực cầu bắt đáy trong phiên chiều đã đẩy VNIndex hồi phục trở lại quanh điểm tham chiếu với thanh khoản vẫn ghi nhận ở mức ổn định. Tuy nhiên, rủi ro giảm điểm vẫn còn nguyên vẹn khi chỉ số này duy trì kết phiên dưới đường trung bình động 20 kỳ. Do đó, nhà đầu tư nên giảm tỷ trọng cổ phiếu trong danh mục và chờ đợi các tín hiệu tiếp theo. Trong những phiên tiếp theo, nếu VNIndex có dấu hiệu tăng mạnh cùng với thanh khoản ở mức cao thì tín hiệu bán hình thành cuối tuần trước có thể sai.
22
August
The stock market increases slightly during the session with liquidity records at a normal level. Despite the recoveries, the downside is present as the bearish market is confirmed before. Therefore, investors should reduce the portion of stock in their portfolios and wait for the next signals.
21
August
The stock market experiences the deepest decline of the year session with record-high liquidity. Furthermore, the VNIndex also closes below the important resistance level of the 1,200-pts threshold, indicating a bearish signal. Therefore, investors should reduce the portion of stock in their portfolios. The next time, if the market appears recovery sessions, investors should be careful with their investment decisions. Because the systematic risk is at a high level and more probability it is a Bull Trap. Overall, investors should reduce the portion of stock in their portfolios and carefully observe the next movements of the market.
18
August
The stock market decreases strongly with improved liquidity, showing selling pressure is significantly intensified during the session. However, the VNIndex maintains to close above both the important support level of 1,200-pts and the 50-period moving average. Therefore, investors should hold long positions and wait for the next signal.
17
August
The stock market experiences a significant gain's day driven mainly by demand on the large-caps stocks. Moreover, the uptrend is still positive as the VNIndex remains end above the important support level of 1,200 pts. Therefore, investors should hold long positions and wait for the next signal.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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