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03
October
Total August steel sales volume posted 75,474 tonnes, increasing 35.2% yoy and decreasing 4.3% mom. Steel coat volume made up 88% of the May total sales volume at 66,445 tonnes, +53.9% yoy, -1.8% mom. The coated steel export volume (48,686 tonnes) slightly decreased by 2.7% mom but rose 68.1% yoy.
03
October
Total August steel sales volume posted 600,992 tonnes, decreased by 8.7% mom and 15.7% yoy. Construction steel volume decreased to 306,943 tonnes, -20.7% yoy, +17.6% mom. The coated steel sales volume (11,952 tonnes) halved by 58.2% yoy, -62.9% mom. The steel coil sales volume (HRC) was 241,402 tonnes (+3.4% yoy -17.1% mom). In which, export volume returned to 114,165 tonnes in August.
26
September
BHX’s Aug sales soared to VND2.9tn (+3.5% mom, + 20% yoy), which was attributed to higher bill numbers (+4% mom) and fresh volume (+10% mom). TGDD and DMX’ Aug sales continued to decrease to VND6.8tn (+0.0% mom, -13% yoy) but being a slowdown compared to the drop of 25% yoy in June and 20% yoy in July, which was driven by the positive yoy growth of laptops and white products.
19
September
On Sep 19, we attend Ho Chi Minh City Infrastructure Investment (CII) Extraordinary General Meeting. The company presented to the investors their plan to amend the company business line and to develop new infrastructure projects. The company failed to organize the meeting due to only ~200 investors attended, represent 31.2% of the voting shares.
06
September
VCG’s revenue doubled by +108% yoy, 132.4% qoq (VND4.5tn), and NPAT skyrocketed to VND130.3bn (+592% qoq) compared to 2Q22 loss of VND60.3bn. The real estate accounting for 25% of revenue in 1H23 posted a GM of 29% (+9%p yoy) than the construction division (60% of total revenue, GM: 2.1%, -3.3%p yoy). The Company's interest expense in 1H23 was VND430.9bn, +11% yoy. The revenue growth pushing up the interest coverage to 5x in 2Q23 from 3.3x in 2Q22
06
September
QNS is the domination of the soymilk market and also holds the second-largest sugar factory in Vietnam. With dominant market share, soymilk segment supplies a cash cow, while we anticipate that QNS's sugar production will be maintained at a high level, ensuring good selling prices and strong profit margins for QNS in the years ahead due to anti-dumping duties. We initiate our coverage on Quang Ngai Sugar (QNS VN) with a BUY rating and target price of VND65,900, implying a 33.0% upside by using a DCF (50%) and PE (50%) methodology.
25
August
We initiate our coverage on TCB with a BUY rating and a target price of VND43,700, implying a 30% upside buy using a residual approach (50%) and P/B method (50%). TTM PB is at trough of 0.7x and we believe it is worth of trading at 1.1x PB driven by earnings turnaround in 2024-25F. TCB growth is taking a breath, made worse by the corporate bond crisis and real estate market stagnation. Against the odds, we believe it is just a temporary period of trouble.
22
August
PNJ’s Jul net revenue surged by 8.5% mom to VND2.4tn in July 23, -5.8% yoy compared to June performance (-17.1% yoy). Gold 24K gained the spotlight with a VND5.7tn, +1.2% yoy, 30.4% of total sales. - The Jul result rewarded 7M23 NPAT growth with a 0.4% yoy (VND1.2tn, completing 60.4% of annual guidance) vs -0.5% yoy in 6M23.
17
August
2Q23 PBT surged +75%yoy (to VND1,577bn) thanks to strong income growth from non-NII (+331%yoy), low OPEX (-15.3%yoy) and a constant provision expense (+1%yoy). Meanwhile, NII kept a moderate growth rate of 7% with stable NIM. 2Q23 NPL (2-5 group) and NPL (3-5 group) fell to 6.2% (vs. 1Q23’s 7.4% and 4Q22’s 4.8%) and 3.2% (vs. 1Q23’s 3.3% and 4Q22’s 2.2%) respectively.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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