![VIC-Brief-[NONRATED]-A wild dream faces hurdles](https://kisvn.vn/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/09/page-phantich-m.jpg)
25
October
We tuned in to VIC’s analyst meeting on Oct 31 which featured the strategic visibility on Vinfast and shed some colors on its 3Q23 operational updates. Vingroup’s 3Q23 NPAT was resilient at VND567.3bn (12% yoy, 169.3% qoq), thanks to a combination of the brisk revenue growth of 68% yoy, 1.7% qoq to VND47.9tn and other income of VND6,619bn. However, the NPATMI was in red territory at VND669bn.
24
October
3Q23 net profit grew +3.4%qoq and -13%yoy to VND5,843bn mainly due to higher operating expenses (+20.5%yoy, CIR: from 29% in 3Q22 to 35% in 3Q23) and a sharp increase in credit provision expense (+55.1%yoy). Meanwhile, total operating income stayed flat (+0.8%yoy), resulting from better than non-interest income (+13%yoy). 9M2023 PBT slumped -17.8%yoy to VND17,115bn, equalling to 78% of the 2023 target and 83% of our 2023 forecasts.
24
October
On Oct 24, we attended VHM’s 3Q23, and the presentation covered how the “King” fared better. VHM announced the 3Q23 results with a VND32.5tn revenue (82.6% yoy) and a VND10.7tn NPATMI (-26.2% yoy) in light of the absence of bulk sale transaction in financial income of VND10.9tn in 3Q22. VHM rock the market with its 9M23 revenue of VND94.tn, and NPAT of VND32.4tn, completion of 94/106% of their full-year estimate.
23
October
We initiate our coverage on VCB with a BUY rating and a target price of VND100,000, implying a 18% upside by using a residual approach (50%) and P/B method (50%). VCB still maintained profit growth (+18%yoy in 1H2023) and was not pressured by increasing bad debt like other banks. We forecast that 2024F/2025F BVPS could grow 21%yoy.
18
October
In 3Q23, NT2 recorded a significant drop of 62% yoy in revenue. Gross profit and NPAT reported losses of VND 132bn and VND 124bn, respectively. The volume in 3Q23 was 365mn kWh (-59% yoy, -65% qoq), which fulfilled 52% of the 2023 plan, The average selling price was VND2,203 per kWh (+6%yoy, +6%qoq).In 4Q23, we forecast the NT2’s revenue and NPAT are VND1,161bn (-40% yoy,) and VND3bn (-43% yoy).
18
October
- Total September steel sales volume posted 53,644 tonnes, decreased by 14.1% yoy and dropped by 28.9% mom. - Steel coat volume made up 83.2% of the Sep total sales volume at 44,633 tonnes, +3.4% yoy, -32.8% mom. - The coated steel export volume (27,616 tonnes) plummeted by 43% mom but rose 19.7% yoy.
18
October
Total Sep steel sales volume posted 127,058 tonnes, slight increased by 8.1% yoy but went down by 5.7% mom. - Steel coat volume made up 81.1% of the Sep total sales volume at 103,047 tonnes, -6.5% mom and +21.3% yoy. The coated steel export volume (59,649 tonnes) went down by 8.5% mom but still high compare to 2022 (+69.5% yoy).
18
October
Total September steel sales volume posted 655,880 tonnes, increased by 9.1% mom and 1.9% yoy. Construction steel volume increased to 352,930 tonnes, +11.2% yoy, +15.0% mom. The coated steel sales volume (20,970 tonnes) doubled by -5.8% yoy, +75.5% mom while steel pipes sales volume (49,906 tonnes) fell by 36.8% mom, but enlarged by 17.7% mom. The steel coil sales volume (HRC) was 234,074 tonnes (+2.6% yoy, -3.0% mom).
03
October
Total Aug steel sales volume posted 134,778 tonnes, surged by 32.7% yoy and increased by 4.9% mom. Steel coat volume made up 81.8% of the May total sales volume at 110,250 tonnes, +9.6% mom and +47.3% yoy.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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