Research Center

Foreign demand slowed down whilst selling pressure stayed at high level, pushing the market to ended up to be net sold. Net sell value was USD6mn. With ETF flow, the inflow has been active across Vietnam for 4 consecutive weeks as well as demand stayed at high level. Inflow was USD14mn. Although there was the active inflow, demand focused only on Fubon ETF whilst other major ETFs such as VFMVN30 ETF, VFMVN Diamond, VNFin Lead, and KIM Growth VN30 ETF, FTSE Vietnam experienced the outflow or the insignificant flow of money.

We value GEG using a DCF (70%) and EV/ EBITDA (30%) methodology. We initiate coverage with a BUY rating and target price of VND19,650, implying an upside of 39.9%. Our target price implies a target 2023F-24F EV/EBITDA of 8.0x, which is lower than the average historical EV/EBITDA over 2020-2022. We expect favorable growth of GEG’s business results, which will reach CAGR revenue growth and NPATMI growth of 11.4% and 32.0% in 2023F-2025F.

Long VN30F2304 after ATO session and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,030 pts level. (Hourly chart)

Although the VNIndex rises for the eighth consecutive gaining session, the downside risk is still intact due to selling pressure at a high level of around 1,100-pts. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines.

Selling pressure near 1,050 pts zone is slowly absorbed. The rebound phase could be continued. Therefore, investors could open new positions on leading stock but position size should be low due to the current active selling pressure near 1,100 pts zone.

On Mar 31, REE Corp (REE) held the Annual General Meeting. In terms of business results, REE got the solid achievement when its revenue and net profit skyrocketed to VND9,372bn (+61% yoy) and VND2,693bn (+45% yoy) respectively, and fulfilled 131% business guidance. This year was the outstanding year for energy sector when hydropower segment benefited from La Nina effect which lasted from the latter half of 2021 to 2022.

Long VN30F2304 after ATO session and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,030 pts level. (Hourly chart)

Although the VNIndex closes above the 1,050-pts threshold, the downside risk is still intact due to selling pressure at a high level of around 1,100-pts. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines.

On Mar 30, Hoa Phat Group (HPG) held the Annual General Meeting. The company targets a VND150,000bn revenue and a VND8,000bn NPAT amid weak demand. The company has been approved to not pay dividends for 2022.

1Q23 shows the negative impact of the weak global demand on Vietnam’s economic activities, with a slowdown and even a reduction in export-related sectors. The export and export-oriented production saw significant declines in the first quarter of 2023, and the fruitful consumption in the first normalized Tet could not reverse the slowdown. On the upside, we saw improved industrial production, less severe trade performance, a tourism return, and well-controlled inflation in March, providing hope that economic activities would accelerate in the next quarter.