06
July
The market maintains an uptrend with the VNIndex closes above the 10-period moving average, showing positive signals. In the short term, this index has tested the 1,140-pts threshold. Therefore, investors should hold a long position and wait for the next signals.
05
July
Long positions on VN30F2307 should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,100 pts level (Hourly chart).
05
July
The market maintains an uptrend with improved liquidity, shows positive signals. In the short term, the VNIndex has tested the 1,140-pts threshold. Therefore, investors should hold a long position and wait for the next signals.
04
July
With foreign trading activity, the trading interest has started to spread to all cover warrants which have different underlying assets. This is the first signal for the active trading environment. Besides, domestic trading interest also spread to other CWs with different underlying assets, signaling the active market environment and high probability for the bullish move.
04
July
The money market experienced significant fluctuations this week as several factors contributed to the volatility. The overnight interbank rate reached its lowest point in two years, while the widening interest rate gap between the US dollar and Vietnamese dong added pressure on the exchange rate. G-bond yields diverged between primary and secondary markets, and OMO remained inactive. Although credit growth showed positive momentum by the end of June, abundant liquidity persisted. Looking ahead, we anticipate further depreciation of the Vietnamese dong, adding challenges for Vietnam monetary authority to stimulate the economy.
04
July
Long positions on VN30F2307 should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,100 pts level (Hourly chart). For new positions, traders could open new long positions after ATO session and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,100 pts level (Hour chart).
04
July
The market comes back to a gaining session with the VNIndex still ends above the 10-period moving average, shows positive signals. However, the downside risk is still present. Therefore, investors should hold a long position and wait for the next signals.
04
July
Outflow across ETFs in Vietnam came back, recorded at USD8mn. In general, the flow of money across Vietnam is weak in the previous week. Therefore, there is a high probability for outflow to still be present in the upcoming weeks.
03
July
On Jun 28, State Bank of Vietnam issued Circular 06/2023/TT-NHNN amending Circular 39/20216-TT-NHNN on the lendinig activities with more prudent control and stricter requirement. We view positively since it helps enhance the credit quality control of banking systems and efficiency use of capital flow to economy. Besides, the new circular accommodates the deferred payment foreign loans.
03
July
Long positions on VN30F2307 should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,100 pts level (Hourly chart). For new positions, traders could open new long positions after ATO session and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,100 pts level (Hour chart).
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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