31
March
GSO’s figures show that Vietnam’s real gross domestic product (GDP) sustained its modest growth rate at 4.48%, leaning back on the impressive improvement in taxes-less-subsidies (TLS) and industry and construction (I&C) items. We believe that the Decree 41 tax deferral policy drove the TLS’s to grow notably this period.
31
March
On Mar 31, we attended AGG’s 2021 AGM, and the presentation was largely centered on the FY21F guidance, contract sale target, and share issuance plan. Per management guidance, FY21F earnings translate into a forward PE of 6.8x and PB of 1.6x, unwarranted with the local peer median of 14x and 2.1x, respectively. We think investors seem to have overreacted to the moderate land bank area of 43-53ha and neglect the solid growth outlook in FY21F-22F.
31
March
Despite the second recovery, the downside risk is still intact in the short term due to the rectangle pattern. If the VNIndex does not break out the 1,200-pts threshold, the index will retest the 1,150-pts threshold. Therefore, traders should be careful and wait for the confirmation signals.
31
March
Long positions captured at 1,182.6 pts should not be closed, follow the bullish swing and out haft of the positions when 1,200 pts level is broken. On the downside, stop the loss when 1,170 pts level is broken (there is the closing price below 1,170 pts level (Hourly chart)).
30
March
The country credit growth was 1.47% ytd as of 19 March 2021, doubling the same period last year but is relatively low as compared to previous years. However, we believe this is not a sign of bank tightening credit to the economy as the industry is often busy at the quarter-end. Besides, from banks’ guidance for upcoming annual general meetings (AGM) we see that bankers seem quite positive on 2021’s outlook.
30
March
2021-early witnessed a hike in the U.S. government bond market among with upward pressure inflation, concerning investors about another taper tantrum similar to 2013 summer. However, we see different things compared to what occurred in the 2013 summer, indicating the chance of a sooner-than-expected tapering to be smaller.
30
March
Despite the recovery, the downside risk is still intact in the short term due to the rectangle pattern. If the VNIndex breaks down the 1,150-pts threshold, the rectangle pattern will be confirmed. In this case, the 1,100-pts zone is the target price in the short term. Therefore, traders should be careful and wait for the confirmation signals.
30
March
Long VN30F2104 after ATO session and add more when the instrument retests 1,175 pts zone, follow the bullish swing and out haft of the positions when 1,170 pts level is broken. If the 1,160 pts level is pierced, all long positions must be out due to the invalid buy signal.
29
March
Last week, foreign supply continued to overwhelm, but selling pressure slowed down. Breaking down by sectors, selling activities mainly absorbed by Financials, Consumer Staples, and Materials whilst Real Estate and Industrials attracted the most foreign demand across the market. Vietnam has lost its role as a leader of SEA due to the negative flow of money. Of which, VFMVN30 ETF kept leading the outflow which recorded the strong divestment (USD11mn). However, the money outflow has been partially recovered by the positive flow of money across VFMVN Diamond (USD4mn).
29
March
On Mar 27, PDR held a 2021 AMG briefing for the upcoming business expansion plan. Key issues covered were the FY21F guidance, industrial estate development, and renewable energy strategy. Per management guidance, FY21F earnings translate into a forward P/E of 14.3x and P/B of 2.5x, on par with the local peer median at 14x and 2.1x, respectively.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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