02
August
The VNIndex closes above the 1,300-pts zone, the significant resistance. That implies the downtrend may be reversed in the short term. Therefore, trader may open long positions with a small proportion, focusing on leading stocks such as Banking and Brokerages.
02
August
Buy VN30F2108 at 1,420 pts zone, take profit at 1,500 pts and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,415 pts (Hourly chart).
02
August
As mentioned above, the long-term uptrend is confirmed as well as the upward resumption phase has high probability to occur after consolidation phase. In this case, investors should continue to hold the current positions on leading stocks.
30
July
Vingroup reported its stunning 2Q21 revenue at VND38.4tn, 64.6% yoy driven by two engines 1) property revenue grew by 62.1% yoy to VND26.8tn, 2) service contractor revenue skyrocketed by 413% yoy to VND3.8tn. In addition to a 12.5%p gross margin expansion, gross profit surged by 205.3% to VND10.4tn. Hence, operating profit bounced to a positive VND2.7tn in 2Q21 even the SG&A spiked by 103.8% due to more aggressive industrial sales.
30
July
Vinhomes reported an exciting 2Q21 controlling interest net profit spiked by 72.3% yoy and 89.6% qoq to VND10.2tn. The brisk profit stemmed from the combination of a soaring total revenue of 75.4% yoy to VND28.2tn and an expanding gross margin of 10.6%p yoy. VHM deserves the high conviction BUY rating. Our estimated TP stays unchanged at VND121,700.
30
July
Buy VN30F2108 at 1,420 pts zone, take profit at 1,450-1,480 pts and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,415 pts (Hourly chart).
30
July
Despite the bullish market for the fourth gaining session in a row, the downside risk is still intact in the short term. Besides, the 1,300-pts zone is the significant resistance. Hence, the recovery may be the bull trap. Traders should be careful and reduce the position.
30
July
The current domestic economic outlook becomes gloomy when the government applies stricter measures to deal with the current outbreak. Domestic consumption retreated further under a short-term disruption in the services sector, and CPI became more volatile due to the temporary shortage of essential goods. Export demand is among a few drivers for economic growth in this quarter with our expectation of successful re-opening the economies from our major trading partners. The industrial sector is also in expansion territory thanks to strong growths in export demand-driven industries.
29
July
Market sentiment has become cautious as the downside risk is still intact in the short term. Moreover, the recovery may be the bull trap. Therefore, traders should be careful and reduce the position.
29
July
The probability for the downward swing to occur is higher than the upward swing. Thus, traders should open short positions (VN30F2108) when 1,400 pts level is broken and stop the loss only when 1,410 pts level is pierced.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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