14
January
Corporate bond offerings rebounded to VND102.9tn, 86.3% mom, +60.9% yoy in Dec, promting to VND698.3tn, +52.9% yoy in 2021. Commercial banks and stockbroking firms subscribed 55.9%/21.5% in Dec, and 31.3%/38.9% in 2021. Individual bondholders made up 4.9% and corporate lenders occupied 19.9% in 2021.
14
January
The VNIndex closes below the 1,500-pts threshold again, implying the high volatility of market sentiment. Besides, the downside risk is still in the short term. Therefore, traders should be careful and wait for the subsequent signals before making investment decisions.
13
January
Long positions on VN30F2201 should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,500 pts level (Hourly chart).
13
January
The VNIndex closes above the 1,500-pts threshold, implying the false of the last bearish signal. However, the downside risk is still in the short -term. Therefore, traders should be careful and wait for the subsequent signals before making investment decisions.
12
January
Buy VN30F2201 after ATO session and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,500 pts level (Hourly chart).
12
January
Traders should continue to stay on the sidelines and wait for the reaction at 1,480-1,500 pts area to define the upcoming market swing.
12
January
The VNIndex closes below the 1,500-pts threshold, showing the bearish signal. The short-term uptrend may be reversed. Therefore, if the index does not recover today and closes above 1,500-pts, traders should reduce their long position.
12
January
A seasonally high liquidity demand in December put significant upward pressure on fixed-income interest rates, especially the ones with short-term and mid-term maturity. From our view, this pressure would continue to exaggerate in January, but it would likely be faded away after that. Besides, accelerating credit growth momentum and higher inflation outlook would be the main drivers for fixed-income rates to the upside. Taking all into account, fixed-income rates are expected to form higher levels in January.
11
January
Traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the reaction at 1,500 pts area to define the upcoming market swing.
11
January
The downside risk increases in the short term because of the selling pressure on leading stocks. The 1,500-pts threshold is the significant support in the subsequent sessions. If the VNIndex closes below the threshold, the bullish market will be reversed. Therefore, traders should wait for the next signals to make a rational decision.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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