03
April
We estimate 1Q20 revenue of Hoa Phat at VND16,882bn, up 12.8% YoY. Given the fact that iron ore is remaining at the high level of around USD91 per tonne, +10% YoY, and the additional VND600bn of D&A and interest, we estimate NPAT at VND1,546bn, -14.6% YoY
03
April
Export to the U.S. will face difficulty in 2Q20 because of school closures, but travel restriction in the U.S. will not interrupt Vinamilk’s milk supply to this market. Vinamilk has lowered its consolidated revenue growth rate target to 8% yoy this year from the previous figure of 10% as management board has prudent view of domestic market in the pandemic.
21
February
In spite of export prospect, flat domestic market and higher WMP price keep us cautious about Vinamilk in 2020. Based on the fair PER of 19.5x, we evaluate VNM share at VND115k by the end of 2020. Including VND4,000 cash dividend, total 1-year expected return is 12.3%. HOLD.
19
February
Before any stimulus from the Government, we expect to see short-term negative impacts on Vietnam steel industry. However, with its key advantages, we maintain our previous estimate for revenue and net profit of Hoa Phat at VND76,018bn and VND8,762bn, up 19.4% YoY and 12.9% YoY. As a result, we value HPG share at VND28,000 by the end of 2020 for the total return of 20.2% Therefore, we maintain our BUY recommendation
18
February
We believe the biggest problem for these projects is the rush to go online before the deadline Nov 2021, which may increase the leverage of PCC1 significantly in the coming quarters
16
February
We have not seen any change that may make a positive impact on the fundamental of NT2 significantly recently as well as in 2020. Using DDM valuation method with our expectation that the company will pay cash dividend consistently, we evaluate NT2 share at VND23,000 per share at the end of 2020. Hence, with the current price of VND23,300, the total 1-year expected return is 10% (including 11% dividend return of the remaining VND2,500 cash dividend for 2019). NEUTRAL recommendation for NT2.
16
February
Despite of prospects of product premiumization and pork segment, we believe that much have already been reflected into 2020 forward PER of 17.6x. Using sum-of-the-parts valuation, we value MSN share at VND73,000 by the end of 2020. Total expected return is -1% at the market price of VND73,600. NEUTRAL.
16
February
We remain cautious about BMP because share price valuation is expensive compared to other building material sector amid the dim outlook of construction sector. Using the average EV/EBITDA of 5x and P/E of 10x, we evaluate the BMP share at VND56,300 by the end of 2020. Including VND4,000 cash dividend per share, total expected return is 12.2%. Recommend NEUTRAL
16
February
We make a bet on the significant improvement of Vung Ang 1 and Ca Mau 1&2 in 2020. Using the FCFF method, we estimate the target price of POW share at VND16.8k by the end of 2020, resulting the total return of 29% at the market price of VND13k. OVERWEIGHT.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
Tiếng Việt
普通话
