07
October
Nam A Bank was established in HCM in 1992. Its total assets reached VND95tn (+26% yoy) in 2019, ranking 23/31 domestic commercial banks in Vietnam, and held 0.9% lending market share. It increased presence significantly since 2018 and achieved 105 branches and transaction offices as of June 2020. NAB retail clients account for 84% of the bank total deposits but just 30% of loans.
07
October
Based on the phone call to NLG’s IR on Oct 05, we project a VND69bn net profit (-53% yoy) despite a flat revenue of VND394bn (+1% yoy) in 3Q20F. The weak 3Q20F net profit growth could be attributable to a fewer property handover and no land transfer. Most of 3Q20F revenue is derived from construction business.
07
October
LHG’s market price have strongly rallied in the past month mostly due to the recent acquisition of 20% LHG’s stake by shareholder Vo Tan Thinh. Without any offering, we think that LHG’s price do not have much room to go up as we think the potential catalyst and lure dividend yield have priced in. In the medium term, we expect the new lank bank of Long Hau industrial park 3 phase 2 could trigger a surprising business growth FY22-23F.
01
October
On 01 Oct, Vinamilk released preliminary 3Q20 business results, which highlighted more optimistic earning growths than those of previous quarters. Particularly, Vinamilk estimates consolidated revenue to reach VND15,561bn (+8.8% yoy) and consolidated NPAT to reach VND3,106bn (+16% yoy).
29
September
An amendment of Cir.01 with the extension of debts subjected for restructuring may be finalized and announced soon in Oct 2020. This may provide credit institutions a leeway to further assist severe impacted debtors and enables them to contain NPL ratio and credit cost in 2020 and 2021 at manageable levels. We maintain Overweight on the sector.
22
September
Amid COVID-19 caused difficulties for Aviation industry. More than 60 million shares of ASG Corporation (ASG) were officially listed to trade for the first day on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HSX) on September 24, 2020. ASG focus on aviation logistics, aviation services and supported for airlines.
22
September
Mobile World released Aug 2020’s business results, which highlighted extending profit growth compared to previous month. Based on 8M20 business results, Mobile World’s revenue and NPAT completed 66% and 78% of 2020 business guidance, respectively.
10
September
On 09 Sep, Mobile World held a site visit tour to their new store format Dien May Xanh super-mini. The company targets to scale its super-mini up to 300 this year-end and record VND500bn. With super-mini format, Dien May Xanh targets to reach 60% domestic market share in 2022.
08
September
The re-emergence of COVID-19 in Da Nang city has pushed back hopes of a strong second half recovery. However, we do not believe that Vietnam’s residential market will see a sharp crash in FY20-21F as the typical indicators of a bubble market are currently not prominent. We expect governmental actions like infrastructure spending, regulatory amendments plus softer mortgage rates could bolster volume in FY21F.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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