![VHC – Brief [BUY +21.8%] Inventory provision hit 3Q20 NPAT](https://kisvn.vn/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/09/page-phantich-m.jpg)
21
October
Vinh Hoan announced official 3Q20 business results in Oct 21, which delivered worse NPAT results than our expectation. Particularly, Vinh Hoan posted nearly VND1,800bn revenue (-4.4% yoy) and NPAT posted VND175.4bn (-30.8% yoy) in 3Q20
20
October
Credit growth was stronger than our expectation with a growth of 3.9% qoq in 3Q20 and 11.7% ytd in 9M20. Since MBB’s credit has skewed toward corporate bond and retail market amid downward slope of interest rate, 3Q20 NIM was up 44bps qoq to 5.25%.We believe that these brisk figures should be a result of the bank’s proper approaches in the COVID-19 infected economy and reaffirm BUY at TP VND24,200.
20
October
From 3Q20 investor meeting on 20 Oct 2020, ACB revealed to gain a PBT of VND6.4tn in 9M20, up 15% yoy, fulfilling 84% of the target. NII reached VND10tn, up 14% yoy and non-interest income was VND2.7tn, up 7% yoy.
20
October
SCS reported its 3Q20 results. Following, revenue reached VND167bn and PBT reached VND124bn, declining 10% YoY and 9.3% YoY, respectively. International cargo will be supported by trade activities when EVFTA has been approved and entered into force on Aug 1, 2020. Currently, travel restriction has been lifted but passenger travel is still neutral when quarantine regulations aren’t completed, airlines could continue to ramp up cargo transportation to offset passenger volume.
19
October
Vinh Hoan announced Sep 2020 IR News in Oct 19 2020, which delivered preliminary single-digit yoy revenue growth. In aggregate 3Q20, Vinh Hoan can record VND1,800bn revenue (-4.4% yoy), mainly lead by the EU surge, which is in line with our estimates.
15
October
Although pangasius export can still recover slowly, we believe Vinh Hoan’s business results will improve significantly in 2021 thanks to Collagen & Gellatin surge. Therefore, we reiterate BUY for VHC share with TP of VND50,000. Total expected return is 22.1%.
15
October
In the period of 2020-2022, we expect robust growth of Mobile World’s business results, which will reach 3-year CAGR revenue growth and NPAT growth of 23.8% and 32.9% in the period of 2020-2022, respectively. We evaluate MWG share value at VND155,000 per share. Total expected return is 43.6%, including 1.4% cash dividend yield.
12
October
We forecast 2020 NP at VND6.3tn, an increase of 4% yoy and outpacing the company’s guidance by 2%. Although provision expense may be still heavy in 2021, we expect NP to grow by 18% yoy to VND7.4tn thanks to stronger revenue and better OPEX management. We reiterate BUY on the bank’s high-quality assets and high earning growth at CAGR of 16% in 2020-2024.
08
October
We reiterate BUY rating as sales of GSW and St Moritz condo projects could be on track in FY20F-21F. Our RNAV-based target price remains at VND12,800. Our mid-to-long-term investment thesis depends on whether DXG can successfully unlock its mega-sized Gem Riverside project in Dist 2 in FY20-21F. Key downside risks to our call is deteriorated economy growth that could dampen our presale outlook.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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