![MWG_3Q20 Review [BUY +39.7%] YoY NPAT growth to extend in 4Q20](https://kisvn.vn/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/09/page-phantich-m.jpg)
24
November
Despite weakening demand of ICTs and CEs, we expect that earnings protection efforts of The Gioi Di Dong & Dien May Xanh and effective expansion of Dien May Xanh Super-mini format, will support Mobile World to achieve positive yoy NPAT growth in 2020. Based on 3-Y average PE multiple of 13.0x, we evaluate MWG share value at VND155,000 per share. The total expected return is 39.7%, including 1.3% cash dividend yield. BUY.
23
November
We reaffirm BUY and lift TP by 15% to VND33,400. The new TP implies a forward P/B of 1.76x on 2021 earnings. We highly appreciate the bank’s efforts in fulfilling 2020 goals including financial guidance, exclusive banca agreement and its relisting on HSX.
16
November
Given resilient TCB’s CASA growth momentum, we raise NIM by 48bps for 2020F and 30-40bps for 2021-2024F. 2020F NP is forecast at VND11.5tn, increasing by 11% vs. latest update. We maintain BUY on TCB and raise TP to VND28,400.
16
November
We think the recent price rally have been reflected the fact NSHL IP is approved in Oct and there is no stronger price growth in months ahead. We downgrade to Hold as we are uncertain on the solid FDI recovery to Vietnam which compresses KBC’s business performance.
14
November
On Nov 14, Mobile World held 3Q20 analyst meeting to update more information about business results. Of which, Mobile World’s revenue delivered VND8,700bn in Oct 2020, increasing 10% yoy and 4% mom, mainly premised by the positive contribution of Bach Hoa Xanh’s revenue.
11
November
In 4Q20, we are concerned that Vinamilk’s revenue will be negatively impacted by weakening demand in the Central and the decrease of export revenue to the U.S. amid Covid’s wider spread. However, the impact of yoy lower gross margin will be cushioned by the yoy improvement of SG&A ratio, which is expected to maintain Vinamilk’s NPAT growth driver in 4Q20.
11
November
We could see a better quarter on quarter in 4Q20F new supply as the developers are under pressure to ramp up sales to meet the full-year target. However, the accelerating launches in 4Q20F still suffer a drop by 10-30% yoy as the second COVID wave in Aug discouraged the marketing plan which were kicked off to bolster sale events in 4Q20F. Despite the new supply slumps on yoy base in 4Q20F, we are upbeat on 4Q20F earning growth of 35-40% yoy leading by VHM, DXG thanks to tens of thousands of units delivered in 4Q20F.
11
November
We maintain BUY rating at higher target price of VND14,600 as we reduce the execution risk on three on-going projects including Opal Skyline, Opal Cityview, GSW, St Moritz as we have more information about the sales plans and witness the real interest from homebuyers which guarantee us presale forecast.
11
November
4Q20F net profit of VND618bn is secured driven by one-off VND612bn financial gains from a 35% equity stake transfer. FY21F net profit is estimated to grow by 34.6% yoy mainly backed by condo delivery in Akari project
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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