Research Center

In 4Q20, Vinh Hoan posted nearly VND1,947bn revenue (-8.3% yoy), which was mainly dragged down by 21.4% yoy decrease and 11.2% yoy decrease of export revenue to the U.S. and China. Vinh Hoan’s 4Q20 NPAT posted VND153bn (-23.1% yoy) in 4Q20, mainly dragged down by yoy narrowing gross margin.

The insurance market kick-off 2021 year with the official announcement about listing schedule on HSX from Military Insurance Company (MIG). According to HSX, MIG’s listing day is January 21st, reference price will be VND 15,550/ share. In Vietnam non-life insurance market, MIG is standing at 6th position among Top 10 largest companies.

We attended online meeting held by VIC on Jan 14 where our emotion was overwhelming driven by the stunning strategy plans on their digital transformation, global Vinfast presence and One Mount Group mission. We think that those ambitious milestones could come closer no matter what the short and medium-term challenges are. We attribute that VIC is the only company in Vietnam with extensive presence across the consumer ecosysterm and with superior data analytics capabilities is the key driver.

Thai Nguyen International Hospital is listing on HSX bourse on 06 Jan 2020 with reference price at VND25,000/share, for opening date, translating into a TTM P/E of 10.1x and a forward FY21F P/E of 8.6x. We think such valuation is unwarranted to the average industry P/E of 10x given the TNH’s FY21F estimates of attractive net profit growth of 33.3% yoy, and promising ROE of 38.6%.

PVI Re will be listed on HNX exchange as ticker PRE from 24 Dec 2020 with reference price for opening date at VND20,000/share. Compared with VNR, PVI Re’s PB ratio is doubled at 1.7x. This valuation comes from its positive performance in recent years and their business strategy for following period 2021-2024. In 2019, PVI Re recorded revenue growth rate at 23% and NP growth rate at 12% while these number of VNR were 17% and 5%, respectively.

MSB debuts more than 1.17 billion shares with initial price of VND15,000 per share on 23 Dec on HoSE. The bank is expected to acquire higher profitability in 2021 onward given the following reasons: 1) gap growth earning by retrieving and provision of VAMC bonds ; 2) upfront fee by renewing bancassurance contracts, expected in 1Q21, and (3) divesting its consumer finance arm, FCCOM.

Vietnam has a promising insurance market from its low penetration rate of 2.65% compared to 9.6% in advanced markets. Insurance density was USD72 compared to USD4,664 of the advanced markets. Total population possessed life insurance products was just ~8.5%. Those imply a potential field for all players in the sectors.

We upgrade to BUY following inclusion of FE Credit IPO at TP of VND 37,033. Since the third virus spread in Vietnam is contained promptly and we believe that all sides have been included COVID-19 variable into modeling, our base case assumption is that VPB is able to divest 49% stake of FE Credit at 3.00x PB in 2021.

We raise our target price (TP) for MSN share by 27% to VND94,000/share but downgrade to Hold from BUY as MSN share price has jumpt by 62% over the last two months. Our TP increase is driven by rolling price recommendation to the end of 2021 and the increase of our estimate for Masan Group’s 2021 NPAT post-MI on the back of higher earning forecasts for all four core business segments.