25
February
According to Ministry of Industry and Trade, in Jan, fertilizer export volume rose significantly to reach 370,000 tonnes (+192% yoy and +147% mom), while the export value grew strongly to USD299mn (+682% yoy and +172% mom), mainly due to the increase in global selling prices. On average, the export price was USD808/tonne (+170 yoy and +10% mom) in Jan.
24
February
Based on our estimate, 4Q21 aggregated revenue of 23 listed hydropower companies jumped 22.5% yoy, while 4Q21 aggregated NPATMI increased by 32.9% yoy. Due to the waning effect of La Nina in the north, EVN will shift its focus to coal thermal plants to ensure power supply. The HFO Singapore, a reference for gas price supplied to domestic gas-fired power plants could spike in 1Q22F due to supply shortage and Russia – Ukraine tension. We think EVN will prioritize the cheaper coal-fired power plants driven by their lower than gas supply price. Thus, we expect the revenue of coal-fired plants stays solid than gas-fired firms in 1Q22F.
23
February
Based on our estimate, 4Q21 aggregated revenue of listed milk companies, brew and sugar grew by 9.8%, 7.7%, and 26.4% yoy, respectively. The 4Q21 aggregated NPATMI of dairy and sugar producers increased by 4.2% and 15% yoy, respectively. Meanwhile, the NPATMI growth of listed beer companies was softer at -19.7% yoy after bottoming at -66% in 3Q21 due to tepid domestic demand in the lockdown period. Most producers have plans to increase selling prices in 1Q22F to make up for the higher input costs. Big players such as VNM, SAB have just increased prices by about 3-5% in late Dec 2021 and that will support GMs in 1Q22F.
22
February
4Q21 aggregated revenue of 17 listed fertilizer producers jumped 86.9% yoy, while 4Q21 aggregated NPATMI soared 1,410.8% yoy. The NPATMI grew sharply and reached an all-time high in 4Q21. The stronger net profit growth was attributed to gross profit margin expansion. Demand for agricultural products remains abundant in 2022F backed by urges to ensure food security after COVID-19 pandemic and to compensate for the crop reduction due to climate changes.
18
February
On Feb 18, PDR set up an analyst meeting to brief their 4Q21 results, land bank acquisition and development plan in 2022F-24F. The company claims to acquire at least 5,531ha as of end-2021 (459ha as of end-2020) in 8 provinces of which 18-20% is secured for development while the remainders are sought for a legal license. Breaking down by type of purpose, 28% of the total land bank is monetised for industrial estates. In detail, PDR plans to monetize a 24ha logistic area in Cai Mep-Vung Tau province and 394ha Cao Lanh industrial park in Dong Thap province in 2022F
18
February
On Feb 18 analyst meeting, Bamboo Capital Group (BCG) introduced us to the 4Q21 results and their 2022F business plans regarding real estate development and renewable energy strategy. - The net debt to equity is geared to 1.55-1.56x in 2020-21, raising concerns about their leverage. The company has yet provided its fund plan but could issue 60mn shares in 2022F to reduce this ratio.
18
February
The sector aggregated revenue was pegged at VND20.4tn (+92% yoy) in 4Q21 and VND60.5tn (+109% yoy) in 2021. In tandem with the revenue growth, aggregated profit after tax grew robustly with VND6.6tn (+88% yoy) in 4Q21 and VND21.5tn (+115% yoy) in 2021. We estimate that the ADTV in 1Q22F continues to stay at VND22tn-23tn (+20% yoy). Revenue from brokerage and margin lending could account for a major proportion in revenue and net profit structure. Therefore, revenue performance in 1Q22F could be secured with positive YoY results.
16
February
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. Jan 2022 Vietnam steel production decreased 6.6% mom to 2.36mn tonnes. During Jan 22, we observe that the impressive total construction steel consumption with 905,885 tonnes (+35.5% yoy, -0.7% mom). In which, export construction steel volume was at 218,388 tonnes, increasing by 87.8% yoy and 14.5% mom.
16
February
The January performance witnessed the rosy export volume while local demand was still weak. The domestic volume of steel coat recorded 14,615 tonnes (+2.4% mom, -33.6% yoy) while domestic steel pipe volume posted 11,576 tonnes (+11.7% you, -33.6% mom).
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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