Research Center

On May 10, we tuned in to 1Q22 VNM’s analyst meeting which features its 1Q22 operational updates and sheds some lights on rebounding revenue and expanding gross margin. VNM pegged domestic market revenue at 11,658 (+ 4.3% yoy) contributed by parent’s domestic revenue growth of 3.5% yoy (VND10,234bn) and MCM’s revenue growth of 8.6% yoy (VND675bn) in 1Q22. The company stockpiled raw materials until Aug at a costlier price. Given the prices of imported milk powder forward contracts are cooling down, VNM expects to benefit at least from 3Q22F. We maintain a HOLD rating underpinned by a sluggish outlook in 2022F-23F

Based on our estimate, 1Q22 aggregated revenue of 24 listed fertilizer producers jumped 71.2% yoy (VND30.9tn), while aggregated NPATMI climbed 7.9x yoy (VND6.8tn). In 1Q22, total consumption volume sustained but export skyrocketed with 510,000 tonnes, +47% yoy/+31% qoq, equivalent to 44%/40% of the total export in 2020-21. We view the proposal to impose an export tax of 5% from the Ministry of Finance could weigh down some exporters. However, 5% is an insignificant threshold to loom the export where exporters could gain a lucrative gap between the export and domestic prices. Furthermore, when the Summer-Autumn crop comes, the domestic demand could bounce to offset the loss from export constrain if any.

In Apr 2022, prelim seafood export value recorded USD1,056mn (+41% yoy and + 4% mom), driven by shrimp product with USD406mn (+35% yoy and +2% mom), pangasius product with USD297mn (+105% yoy a nd +11% mom).Vietnam’s prelim seafood export to US market increased to USD266mn (+79% yoy. +16% mom), China market also surged by 108% yoy and 12% mom to USD216mn in Apr.

On May 6, we tuned in to the AGM of BCG to be covered with their 2022F guidance related to real estate development and listed plans. In 2022F, BCG eyes a VND7.5tn revenue, 189.7% yoy and a VND1.3tn NPATMI, +116.7% yoy. Three business lines are going to be listed in 2022F-23F including BCG Land, BCG Industrials, BCG Energy. Despite those above tailwinds, we are skeptical of their escalating debt, potential dilution risk, and ample sensitivity to the hospitality property market where the majority of BCG’s projects are tourism/resorts.

VNM reported its revenue increased 5% yoy to VND13,878bn in 1Q22 contributed by domestic market revenue of 11,658 (+ 4.3% yoy) and overseas market revenue of VND2,220bn (+10.3% yoy). The 1Q22 NPAT-MI posted VND2,266bn, -12% yoy. The 1Q22 results fulfilled 21.2%/20.7% of our Revenue/NPAT-MI forecasts.

VHC’s 1Q22 revenue surged 82.8% yoy to VND3,267.6bn and NP leaped 3.2x yoy to VND553.3bn. The high demand of most markets could strongly drive robust export volume and ASP in 2Q22. We reaffirm BUY with a TP of VND121,500

We tuned in to VIC’s analyst meeting on Apr 29 which features the strategical visibility on Vinfast and sheds some light on its 1Q22 operational updates. Vingroup reported its brisk 1Q22 NPATMI growth of 17.2% yoy (VND2,453.8bn) despite a shrinking revenue growth of 21.7% yoy (VND18.2tn) and a 13%p yoy blended gross margin (GM) contraction (1.1%).

HPG’ revenue increased 41.3% yoy to VND44,058bn in 4Q22 driven mainly by steel segment while agriculture and real estate segment revenue dropped 28% and 61% yoy, respectively. The 1Q22 NPAT-MI posted VND8,217bn. +17.7% yoy. The 1Q22 results fulfil 24.5%/24.6% our Revenue/NPAT-MI forecasts.

Vinhomes recorded its 1Q22 decelerating 31.3% yoy growth of topline (VND8.9tn). The bottom line dropped less by 15.9% yoy (VND4.5tn) thanks to a stronger growth of financial income (66% yoy, VND3.8tn) which offset the gross margin contraction (43.3%, -4.5%p). VHM’s share price retreated since the investors’ sentiments are vulnerable over some investigation on the market manipulation and corporate bond issuance. The valuation is light as the 12MF PE has slipped to 7.7x, a historical low level. Given the rosy presale growth momentum and cheaper valuation across the sector, VHM is worth accumulation.