07
June
Construction steel stole the spotlight with the sales volume posted at 393,000 tonnes, +32.0% mom and +21.2% yoy. The 4 price cuts in May have started to show the effectiveness for construction products.
02
June
Urea/NPK/Phosphate/DAP production volume in May were 197,900/283,700/91,200/38,000 tonnes. Export volume jumped 54% yoy/7% mom to hit 160,000 tonnes, with the total value of USD106mn. On average, the export price was USD663/tonne (-3% mom and +91% yoy). Although it may be difficult to achieve the “idealy” export volume in Jan-22, exports in May was still relatively high compared to other months in 2021.
31
May
The seafood export thrived to USD2.5bn (+46% yoy) in 1Q22, mainly driven by sales revival in all markets for all seafood categories. Hence, 24 listed seafood exporters recorded a VND16tn revenue (+47.5% yoy) and VND1,281bn NPAT (+2.4x yoy). We maintain OUTWEIGHT rating even the seafood stocks were up sharply in1H22. We believe the rally is persisting through 3Q22F given clear earnings momentum backed by sound business conditions.
27
May
Based on our estimates, 1Q22 aggregated revenue of listed T&G and yarn companies perked up 32.6%/22.6% yoy while NPATMI soared 71.5%/ 22.3% yoy, respectively. Top companies include VGG (+550% yoy), HTG (+247.6% yoy), and VGT (+102% yoy). 2Q is a typical peak period when production begins for the next fall/winter season. Inventory assets swelled 24.5% yoy as of end-1Q22 in T&G companies, and this demonstrates healthy conditions among clients. Vietnam’s textile and garment export turnover in Apr 2022 sustains the revival growth of 28.4% yoy and 3.6% mom to USD3.1bn. Revenue recovery could ramp up in 2Q22F for T&G segments.
24
May
HPG BOD had conservative guidance caused by the uncertainty of geopolitical tension. The BOD supposed that the industry impact caused by the geopolitical tension and the Zero-COVID policy will be shown in the company’s performance in 2Q22 and 3Q22.
23
May
According to the MoIT, after two months that had been disrupted in exporting, fertilizer export volume in Apr jumped 28% mom/15% yoy to hit 115,000 tonnes, with the total value of USD78mn. On average, the export price was USD678/tonne (+25% mom and +105% yoy) in Apr. In which, Viet Nam exported to Cambodia the most with the market share of about 41%.
20
May
Excluding Vimedimex with a 50.1% yoy revenue drop since VMD specializes in drug distribution, 1Q22 aggregated revenue of 28 listed pharma producers climbed by 11.8% yoy, while aggregated net profit surged by 27.4% yoy. Looking forward to 2Q22F, demand for drugs could revive both through ETC (the drug channel for treatment, which patients can only buy at hospitals) and OTC (drugstores) when everything is back to normal. The demand for vitamins, antibiotics, and functional foods will expect to increase. The need for specific drugs used in hospitals will soon climb as hospitals start accepting patients again
20
May
The reopening of all industries led oil & gas consumption to grow in 1Q22. Based on our collection, the 1Q22 aggregate earnings growth edged up 35.1% yoy in 1Q22 vs 31.7% yoy growth in 4Q21. Otherwise, the revenue growth rate in 1Q22 was still brisk at around 66.7% yoy thanks to the higher oil prices. Average selling prices were the biggest impact on revenue growth engines, in our view. The high global oil prices will lead earnings of midstream and downstream such as GAS, and BSR to grow strongly in 2Q22F.
19
May
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During Apr 22, we observed the domestic revival pause caused by high steel prices. We also expect the temporary price retreat will end soon after COVID-19 restrictions ease in China.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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