Research Center

On Jun 17, we tuned in to GVR’s AGM presentation briefing for the upcoming business plan. Rubber Group of Vietnam is among the biggest state-owned rubber producers with 400,000ha rubber land: Laos and Cambodia occupy 115,000ha, Southeast regions of Vietnam form 150,000-160,000ha, Central Highland accounts for 70,000. GVR’s rubber capacity stood at 1.51tonne/ha in 2021. Hit by swirls of raw material price rally and freight rate upturn, GVR prudently guides a flattish NPAT of VND5,340bn based on a 4.8% yoy revenue growth.

GMC targets a VND620bn revenue (-42% yoy) and a VND60bn NPAT (+9% yoy) in 2022F. The company will pay 2021’s dividend by cash at 50%, in which 1st payment of 20% will be on June 24th and the 2nd payment of 30% is expected to be in 3Q22F. A 50% cash dividend at par could bring an appealing dividend yield of 22.2%.

On Jun 16, we attended TCL’s AGM presentation briefing for the upcoming business plan. TCL currently held 92%, and 65% of market shares in the port operating segment in the Ho Chi Minh region, and Cai Mep area, respectively. TCL also occupied merely 50% of the container for international trades segment. On a prudent hope for a robust revival, TCL guides NPAT to be VND117.7bn, +3.7% yoy driven by a revenue estimate of VND1,242.5bn, +3.4% yoy. A 42% cash dividend at par could be paid in Aug, 2022, equivalent to a dividend yield of 11.6%.

Indirectly owned by Duc Giang Chemicals JSC (DGC VN, Non-rated) with a 51% stake, Vietnam Apatite Phosphorus Company (PAT) is going to list on the UPCoM bourse on Jun 17th with its 25mn shares. Riding on the commodity upswing, PAT stands out and gains the spotlight.

Total insurance premium accumulated in 4M22 was pegged VND74,036bn (+14.1% yoy). Growth rate up to 4M22 for life insurance premium was 14.5% which continues to be less positive when compared to growth rate above 20% in 2020 and 2021. The losing growing momentum is claimed to delayed effect of COVID19. Having to be mentioned that the current pace is just weaker than one in previous period and we do not see any bad sign in long-term sector’s outlook.  Contrast to Life insurance, Non-life maintained an impressive growth rate. Particularly, 4M22 premium growth rate was 13%, much higher than 2020 and 2021 performance which is 6.2% and 3.98%, respectively. The main motivation comes from high-proportion products namely Health insurance as well as Motor vehicle insurance.

The management sets conservative guidance when it targets the output of 4.34bn kWh (+35% yoy), revenue of VND8,129bn (+32% yoy), and PAT of VND468bn (-12% yoy). NT2 is going to pay a 15% cash dividend at par for 2022F. In 1Q22, NT2 recorded a splendid result with a VND2,006bn (+22% yoy) and a VND159.6bn (+38.9% yoy), fulfilling 25%/34% annual guidance. 2Q22’s net profit is predicted to exceed 20% of quarterly plan. NT2 expects to enjoy better results in 2022F and a spectacular result since 2024F when its assets reach full depreciation.

In May 2022, total electricity production was 23.34bn kWh (+3.2% mom, -2.7% yoy). Hydropower output also surged 47.9% yoy, 44.7% mom to hit 8.31bn kWh in the context of rising gas and coal prices when coal and gas thermal power output plunged. Vinacomin and Dong Bac pledged to supply enough coal for remaining months when total coal volume supplied to power plants is expected to reach 43.99mn tonnes. The nuclear power plant and Block B - O Mon projects are considered to be resumed to meet surging power demand.

The prelim export turnover of Vietnam’s textile and garment remained stellar with 23.4% yoy and 0.6% mom, to USD3.1bn in May. The US persisted as the largest textile and garment importer with a USD1.6bn, +23.5% yoy/0.7% mom and accounting for 51% of Vietnam’s total textile and garment export value. Overall, in 5M22, Vietnam’s textile and...

May exports of rice/cassava/rubber were USD386mn/USD119mn/USD181mn, leaping by 40%/13%/28% mom and 14%/38%/27% yoy. Total agricultural plants formed a USD1,789mn export value (+10% mom and +13% yoy) and rice constituted the biggest share with 22%, followed by coffee (19%), cashew (18%), vegetables (17%) and rubber (10%). In the context that countries are rushing to ensure food security, we expect Viet Nam could ramp up agricultural export output in the next months.