Research Center

In Oct, according to the Customs, total fertilizer export volume was 160,219 tonnes (-16% mom, +60% yoy), equivalent to USD88mn (-19% mom, +109% yoy). Vietnam imported nearly 322,000 tonnes of fertilizer (+29% mom, +7% yoy), equivalent to USD154mn (+52% mom, +35% yoy). Based on data we collected, in Sep, urea accounted for about 34% of total fertilizer imported (about 86,000 tonnes), followed by NPK with 28% (about 69,000 tonnes).

This quarter’s top line recorded VND1,367bn (-22% qoq, -16% yoy) which was hit by decreases of all income sources from FVTPL gain, brokerage, IB and margin lending. The operating expenses stayed flat qoq but financial expenses ramped up by 38.4% qoq and 256% yoy. As a result, net profit was hit significantly, downed to VND42bn (-91% qoq, -93% yoy). As of Nov 7, VND is trading at market price of VND10,450, equal to 0.93x TTM PB. Current valuation is lower than 3-year average PB of 1.68x and median PB of 1.53x and approaching -1 SD milestone at around 0.86x.

PET’s 3Q22 revenue increased by 17% yoy to VND4.5tn mainly driven by merchandise distribution revenue growth of 22% yoy to VND4tn. In 9M22, PET’s revenue rose by 12% yoy to VND12.8tn (fulfilling 64% of full-year guidance), mainly driven by greater sales of smartphones that grew by 16.2% yoy to VND4.8tn. GM improved to 5.6%, +0.5%p yoy in 9M22 thanks to better price discount from suppliers. NPAT slightly rose by 2% yoy to VND177bn, fulfilling 53% of the full-year guidance. We attribute the slower NPAT growth to the allowance of VND166bn for security investment, equal to the temporary loss of 48% from security investment as of end-3Q22.

This quarterly earnings report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the earning growth trend in the steel market. We continue to see the low demand in 4Q22F as bond and property industry issues and interest rate upward pressure for forex control purpose will hinder the consumption demand from end-use buyers.

VNM released its 3Q22 results, including revenue of VND16.1tn ( -0.7% yoy) and NPAT-MI of VND2.3tn (-21.4% yoy). For 9M22, revenue sustained VND44.9tn (-0.5% yoy) but NPAT-MI declined to VND6.6tn (-20.3% yoy), fulfilling 68% and 60% of our full-year forecasts.

The industry posted a VND10,899bn turnover (+12.7% yoy, +2.3% qoq) and VND827bn NPAT (+29.8% qoq, +13.1% qoq). Overall, the top five companies (VMD, DVN, DHG, CDP, and TRA) accounted for around 52% of the industry turnovers. Surrounded the giant rivals, DHG still maintained its leading position with the highest NPAT of VND262bn (+30.1% yoy, +12% qoq). DBD and OPC emerged as brisk players with GM expansion of 16.3%p/8.3%p yoy in 3Q22.

PVT posted decent results in 3Q22 with revenue of VND2,330bn (+39% yoy) and NPAT of VND386bn (+152% yoy). Revenue grew strongly thanks to the growth of its core business – transportation (+45% yoy to VND1,807bn in 3Q22), which was driven by higher tanker rates and the contribution from newly-acquired tankers. Overall, in 9M22, the company achieved a VND6,609bn revenue (+25% yoy) and VND832bn NPAT (+38% yoy), fulfilling 102/173% of its 2022F guidance.

Overall, SAB recorded a solid 3Q22 business result with a VND8.6tn revenue (+101% yoy), and VND1.3tn NPAT-MI (+202% yoy) due to a significant low base in 3Q21 when applying lock down measures. For 9M22, SAB revenue and NPAT-MI went up by 44% yoy and 77% yoy to VND25tn and VND4.2tn, respectively, fulfilling 72%/91% of guidance.

Based on our estimate, the fertilizer sector announced a VND28,491bn revenue (+47.1% yoy), and a VND4,188bn NPAT (+123.4% yoy) in 3Q22, mainly driven by the strong increase in selling prices. Nonetheless, with the fall in domestic selling and petite contribution from the export turnover, 3Q22 revenue/NPAT of the whole sector still lagged behind vs 2Q22 by 11.2%/24.7% qoq in 3Q22.