Research Center

The Oct performance witnessed weak sales volume in both domestic and global markets. In which, domestic sales volume decreased by 21.5% yoy to 479,756 tonnes.

In Oct, VHC delivered VND1,014bn revenue (+10.6% mom and +30% yoy). In which, the pangasius revenue increased 11.3% mom and +0.8% yoy since the increase of average selling price (+7.9% mom and +21% yoy) offset the decrease of volume export . Of note, China export declined 30.9% mom and 43.4% yoy. Whilst, US market recorded +28% mom/ -12.8% yoy revenue.

The total revenue growth momentum of listed garment companies was maintained in 3Q22 when posting 27.0% compared to 25.8% in 2Q22. the earnings growth pace spiked from 22.6%% yoy in 2Q22 to 59.0% yoy in 3Q22 thanks to the low base effect as the Southern region was in a lockdown period in 3Q21. Whereas, listed yarn makers witnessed decent growth figures in 3Q22. Specifically, the revenue growth pace in 3Q22 was 16.7% yoy compared to only 5.5% yoy in 2Q22. Net profit growth of yarn companies also jumped to 12.7% yoy in 3Q22 from 1.2% yoy in 2Q22.

Revenue of ICT/Jewelry/Automobile/Airport retailers in 3Q22 respectively surged by 35.3%/700%/176%/700% yoy driven by the recover from extreme closure during the lockdown in 3Q21. Retailers and retail lessors are hectic preparing for the largest sale season in the year, including the Single Day 11/11, Black Friday 25/11 and Christmas 24/12.

Breweries led F&B’s revenue and earnings growth in 3Q22, the aggregated revenue and earnings growth of 14 listed brewery producers accelerated sharply in 3Q22 compared to a low base in 3Q21. The revenue accelerated to 84% yoy compared to 21.9% yoy in 2Q22. Besides, beer producers achieved brisk net profit growth of 160% yoy compared to 60.6% yoy in 2Q22.

In 3Q22, hydropower generators’ revenue and NPAT-MI went up 58% yoy and 126% yoy thanks to La Nina. The coal and input gas prices in 2023F are projected to slow down compared to the towering price in 2022. Coupled with the waning La Nina, we believe that EVN will mobilize thermal power as the alternative for shrinking hydropower output in 2023F.

In Sep and Oct 2022, hydropower output surged 17% yoy thanks to La Nina effect. Coal-fired power volume dropped to 14.9bn kWh (-6% yoy) owing to surging global coal price (+105% yoy) and tight coal supply. As La Nina is expected to wane since early 2023F, we believe EVN will mobilize thermal power as the alternative for shrinking hydropower output in 2023F.

Based on the General Department of Customs, the prelim export turnover of Vietnam’s textile and garment in October grew only 0.7% yoy and dropped 0.8% mom to USD2.7bn. In October 2022, the export to the US (the largest textile and garment export market of Vietnam) fell -14% yoy, but lifted 3.6% mom, accounting for 37.7% of Vietnam's total textile and garment export value. Overall, in 10M22, Vietnam’s textile and garment export turnover lifted 21.5% yoy to nearly USD31.7bn.

The revenue growth rate of listed pangasius leaped 68% yoy while shrimp exporters inched 6.5% yoy. Meanwhile, the listed pangasius and shrimp exporters' revenue recorded 14.2% qoq and 5.7% qoq export decreases, especially the top tiers, which slowed down quickly after a significant bullish in 2Q22. Despite the upward trend of seafood exporters slowed down in 3Q22, we maintain an OVERWEIGHT rating since we believe that the seafood industry rally is persisting through 4Q22F backed by sound business conditions.