09
October
The stock market recoveries slightly during the session with low liquidity, showing investors’ sentiment is still quite cautious. The downside risk is still intact as the VNIndex maintains to end below the 50-period moving average. Therefore, investors should reduce a portion of stocks in their portfolio to the safety threshold and wait for the next signal.
09
October
Short-term correction period is confirmed and the bullish swing could not come back in the short-term. Besides, market leg is still unclear and demand is weak. Thus, investors should stay on the sidelines and wait for more valid signal for the upcoming trend.
06
October
Selling pressure comes back in the afternoon, causing the stock market to have a deep loss session and approach the important support zone of 1,080-1,100 pts. However, the liquidity is still at a low level, indicating selling pressure has decreased significantly, compared to previous deep decline sessions. The downside risk is intact due to the VNIndex maintain end below the 50-period moving average. Therefore, investors should reduce a portion of stocks in their portfolio to the safety threshold and wait for the next signal.
05
October
At the end of the third quarter of 2023, the VNIndex established a shorterm downtrend, targeting a range of 1,050 1,070 points, influenced by the double top pattern. We predict economic activities to accelerate in 4Q23 with a growth rate of 7.5% YoY, resulting in an increase of 5.18% YoY for 2023. of 7.5% YoY, resulting in an increase of 5.18% YoY for 2023. On the upside, we expect an impressive turnaround in exports due to the increasing demand from the U.S. and China, especially the inventories of U.S. wholesalers and retailers becoming leaner. The Banking industry could sustain in 3Q23 but we are not confident about 4Q23 given the sluggish credit growth and slower than expected NIM recovery
05
October
Demand comes back at the important support level of the 1,100-pts threshold, helping the stock market increase again. However, the liquidity is only recorded at a low level, showing inflow is still weak and investors’ cautious sentiment toward the market. The downside risk is intact due to the VNIndex maintain end below the 50-period moving average. Therefore, investors should reduce a portion of stocks in their portfolio to the safety threshold and wait for the next signal.
04
October
Selling pressure intensifies suddenly during the session, causing the stock market to experience a deep loss day again with improved significant liquidity. Besides, the VNIndex still closes above the 50-period moving average, showing the downside risk is intact. Therefore, investors should reduce a portion of stocks in their portfolio to the safety threshold and wait for the next signal.
03
October
Selling pressure decreased strongly in the recent sessions but demand is still weak, causing the stock market to close around the reference point with liquidity remaining at a low level. This means investors’ sentiment is still quite cautious. Besides, the downside risk is still intact due to the VNIndex maintaining to end below the 50-period moving average. Therefore, investors should reduce a portion of stocks in their portfolio to the safety threshold and wait for the next signal.
03
October
We expect that the inflow across Vietnam could decrease in upcoming quarters due to the diminish of demand on foreign ETFs, but the net flow would be flat cause the outflow on ETFs could be covered by the inflow from others.
02
October
The stock market recoveries slightly during the session with low liquidity, showing investors’ sentiment is still quite cautious. The downside risk is still intact as the VNIndex maintains to end below the 50-period moving average. Therefore, investors should reduce a portion of stocks in their portfolio to the safety threshold and focus on leading stocks.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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