26
May
In the short term, the stock market may face the downside risk as the VNIndex closes below the 10-period moving average. However, the index still closed above the 50-period moving average, showing the signals lose consensus. Therefore, investors should be careful with their investment decisions.
25
May
Although the market continues to decrease, the VNIndex still closes above the 50-period moving average. Accordingly, more signals are still needed to confirm the market's trend. Therefore, investors should stand aside and observe the next movements of the market.
24
May
The VNIndex adjusted during the session, reflecting investors' cautious sentiment. Notably, the index is currently testing the 50-period moving average. Therefore, investors should stand aside and observe the market's further fluctuations.
23
May
The VNIndex recovered and closed above the 50-period moving average showing that this is still a good signal. However, more signals are needed to confirm the market's trend. Therefore, investors should still carefully consider their investment decisions.
22
May
The strong increase in demand from foreign investors brought the market into a state of being net bought. Net buy value was USD33mn. With ETF flow, outflow was active. Net outflow was USD5mn. There is still not a good sign for the stable inflow and outflow could be active in upcoming weeks.
22
May
The market slowed down but increased liquidity and the VNIndex closes above the 50-period moving average showing that this is not necessarily a bad signal. Accordingly, more signals are still needed to confirm the market's trend. Therefore, investors should still carefully consider their investment decisions.
22
May
The VNIndex shows cautiousness due to a rectangle pattern. The index needs a breakout or a breakdown to confirm the next trend.
19
May
Although the VNIndex rebounds, the market sentiment has become cautious in the short term due to selling pressure around 1,100 pts. Therefore, investors should be careful and keep their stock positions at a safe level.
18
May
The global condition has exerted pressure on the stock market in the short term because (1) companies have faced difficulties in 1Q23 and (2) the corporate bond market poses future financial pressure. We expect two scenarios may unfold. Firstly, in the bullish scenario, the VNIndex can reach 1,220 pts in 2H23. Secondly, the bearish scenario suggests the VNIndex retest the zone of 780-910 pts.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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