24
October
Selling pressure comes back again and intensifies strongly during the session, causing the stock market to have a deep loss day with low liquidity. The downside risk is still intact as the VNIndex closes below the 200-period moving average. However, the important support zone of the 1,080-1,100 points is still not breakout. Therefore, investors should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signals.
24
October
In general, outflow pressure has slowed down but demand was still weak. In this case, we expect that Vietnam would experience the flat net flow in upcoming weeks due to the slowdown of outflow.
23
October
The downside risk is still present as the VNIndex closes below the 100-period moving average. Therefore, investors should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signals.
23
October
In this situation, investors need to be cautious, stay on the sidelines and wait for the next reversal signal.
20
October
The stock market has a 4th consecutive deep loss session by more than 1%, indicating selling pressure is still present. The downside risk is intact as the VNIndex remains to end below the 200-period moving average. Therefore, investors should reduce a portion of stocks in their portfolio to the safety threshold and wait for the next signal.
19
October
Selling pressure continuously intensifies strongly during the session, causing the stock market to experience a 3rd consecutive deep loss session by more than 1% with high liquidity. Notably, the VNIndex ends below the 200-period moving average during the day. That means the downside risk is still present and quite significant. Therefore, investors should reduce a portion of stocks in their portfolio to the safety threshold and wait for the next signal.
18
October
The big sell orders in the ATC sessions causes the stock market to experience a 2nd consecutive deep loss session. Selling pressure suddenly intensifies again with the VNIndex maintaining to close below the 50-period moving average, indicating the downside risk is intact. However, the important support level of the 1,100-pts threshold is still not breakout. Therefore, investors should stand aside and carefully observe the next movements. The next time, if VNIndex breaks the above support level with high liquidity, investors should start to reduce a portion of stocks in their portfolio to the safety threshold.
17
October
The HoSE announced the new constituents of the VN DIAMOND Index last Monday. As per the announcement, the index will remove DHC while adding HDB in the 4Q23 review. Furthermore, the VN30Index and the VNFIN LEAD Index will rebalance its weight based on the new free-float rate, share outstanding, and price… The new weight will be effective on 06 Nov 2023.
17
October
The stock market encounters difficulties when the VNIndex approaches the strong resistance zone of 1,150-1,160 points, indicating selling pressure is still present and quite significant. The downside risk is intact due to this index maintaining to end below the 50-period moving average. Therefore, investors should stand aside and wait for the next signal. The next time, if the VNIndex surpasses the above resistance zone, investors can open again exploratory long positions and focus on leading stocks.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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