27
July
The June performance witnessed the decline in export volume, however, export still remains as the key growth driver in 6M22. Weak demand in 2Q22 dragged overall performance. The total 2Q22 sales volume was 260,265 tonnes (+1.1% qoq but -6.4% yoy). In which, domestic demand dropped significantly by 30.6% yoy, 14.8% qoq.
27
July
We witnessed the slump in performance of FY9M2022 on year-on-year basis caused by weak sales volume in first 6 months of 2022. 2Q22 total sales volume was at 416,838 tonnes (-9.6% qoq, -34.3% yoy), which showed a significant drop in demand from both domestic and export channels.
27
July
The June performance witnessed a temporary revival as agents re-stocked the inventories. HPG is expected to continue seeing weak domestic market demand amid high inflation concerns and the rainy season.
27
July
VSH posted its 2Q22 business results with revenue of VND661bn (+33% yoy) and PAT of VND257bn (+90% yoy), mainly bolstered by the increase of ASP (+23.4% yoy) and output (+7.5% yoy). The probability of La Nina effect will wane in Jul but will rebound during Aug – Oct 2022 with moderate probability (68%), continuing into boreal fall and early winter with 63-70% likelihood. VSH will be the beneficiary when EVN increases the mobilization of hydropower in 2H22F.
27
July
OPC posted 2Q22 business results with a revenue of VND214bn (+10% yoy but -44% qoq) and a NPAT of VND29bn (+72% yoy and -28% qoq). Gross margin achieved 41%, +3%p qoq and +2%p yoy. It seems that OPC has demonstrated their effort in controlling material costs regardless a fall in revenue. Despite short-term decline in revenue, we believe that OPC still has long-term growth potential, due to the tendency of consumers to gradually switch to herbal products.
26
July
TNH issued 2Q22 business results with a VND119bn (+33% qoq and +9% yoy) revenue and a VND38bn (+137% qoq and +11% yoy) NPAT. Sales growth in 2Q22 confirmed the return of patients to hospitals and we believe the upward trend could continue for the healthcare industry in general and TNH in specific in next quarters.
26
July
In 2Q22, QNS recorded revenue of VND2,201bn (+9.1% yoy) and NPAT of VND365bn (+1.2% yoy), prompting 1H22 revenue to go up 9% yoy to VND4,014bn and 1H22 NPAT climb 4% yoy to VND541bn, fulfilling 50%/54% of guidance. Revenue and earnings growth were driven by the soy milk segment. In contrast, the sugar segment was hit by Thailand’s sugar imported from other Asian countries.
25
July
EVNGENCO 3 (PGV) announced its 2Q22 business results with revenue of VND11,891bn (+13% yoy) and NPAT-post MI of VND407bn (-52% yoy). In 1H22, PGV recorded VND22,796bn revenue (+16% yoy) and VND1,255bn profit (-23.5% yoy). The loss was mainly bolstered by the sharp increase of exchange loss. We estimate that thermal power price and output, PGV’s main revenue generators would drop owing to abundant volume from other hydropower makers in 3Q22.
22
July
PNJ posted its preliminary 2Q22 business results with revenue of VND8,058bn (+81% yoy) and NPAT of VND367bn (+65% yoy). For 1H22, revenue was VND18,210bn (+56% yoy) and NPAT was VND1,088bn (+48% yoy), which fulfilled 70.5% and 82.5% of guidance. This implies that June-22 revenue and NPAT were VND2,627bn (-1.6% mom, +160% yoy) and VND82bn (-41.4% mom, +64% yoy), respectively.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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