12
9月
Although selling pressure came back again, demand still maintained at a high level and trading interest remained to spread to all cover. Moreover, the positivity of the underlying market is also expected to cause positive impacts to the warrant market in the next time.
12
9月
Massive outflow in 6 consecutive weeks has raised the red flag for the unstable flow of money in Vietnam. In this case, we expect that the flow of money across Vietnam could continue to be unstable in upcoming period and outflow could continue to be active.
12
9月
Long positions on VN30F2309 should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,220 pts level (Hourly chart).
12
9月
Interbank rates steadily stay at their lows when more announcements of lowering deposit rates are recorded. Although the aggregate loan balance returned to growth in August, the improvement was modest, partly causing the liquidity condition to be excessive further. In the vein of government support, the postponement of clauses 8, 9, and 10 of Article 8 of Circular No. 39/2016/TT-NHNN became effective in September. We expect SBV’s decision to ease a few requirements for borrowers and improve credit performance for the future months. The FX market is in the spotlight this week when the September FOMC is counting down. USDVND ended seven rallying weeks with a 10bps reduction compared to last week.
11
9月
The stock market decreased slighly with high liquidity, indicating investors’ caution sentiment at the important resistance zone. However, an uptrend is still present as the VNIndex maintains to end above the 20-period moving average. Therefore, investors should open long positions and focus on leading stocks.
11
9月
Market recovery for three consecutive weeks in the short term, and the increasing trading liquidity is a crucial confirmation at present.
11
9月
Long positions on VN30F2309 should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,220 pts level (Hourly chart).
11
9月
We expect the stock market to maintain its uptrend with a target range of 1,260 to 1,340 points for late 2023 thanks to macro factors such as (1) Improvement in Foreign Direct Investment and (2) The easy money policy.
08
9月
Selling pressure comes back again at the important resistance zone of 1,240-1,250 pts, causing the stock market to slow down. The VNIndex decreases slightly with liquidity still at a high level, showing investors’s caution sentiment toward the market. However, the uptrend is still intact as this index maintains to close above the 20-period moving average. Therefore, investors should open long positions and focus on leading stocks.
08
9月
Long positions on VN30F2309 should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,220 pts level (Hourly chart).
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
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