06
9月
In general, outflow across Vietnam’s ETF intensified strongly while demand experienced a substantial decline. In this case, selling pressure may present the next time, however, an expectation that demand will still maintain on some major ETFs in the context that the stock market is showing positive movements.
05
9月
The stock market increases strongly during the session with improved liquidity, indicating investors' sentiment become more optimistic. Furthermore, the VNIndex successfully surpasses the 20-period moving average. However, this is not a reliable buying signal as despite the improvement, the liquidity is still at a normal level. Therefore, investors should stand aside and observe the next movements of the market.
05
9月
Long VN30F2309 after ATO session and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,200 pts level (Hourly chart).
05
9月
In this scenario, investors could open the long positions on leading stocks. However, margin trading needs to be avoided due to the respected 1,240 pts zone.
30
8月
According to the GSO estimate, in Aug, the total agriculture export value slightly increased to USD2bn (-4% mom, +24% yoy). Rice export value surged by 79% mom and 89% yoy to USD583mn. Rice export volume sharply increased by 67% mom and 54% yoy to 1mn tonnes. Vegetable export value was USD410mn (-25% mom, +69% yoy), and it accounted for 21% of total agriculture export turnover (+5.5%p yoy).
30
8月
Although the reversal for the downtrend is still not confirmed, new long positions for swing trading are not recommended due to the upcoming volatile period. The bullish move would come back only when 1,240 pts zone is broken.
30
8月
The stock market slows down after a sharp rising session with improved liquidity, indicating investors’ hesitation sentiment. In the next time, if the VNIndex successfully surpasses the 20-period moving average with high liquidity, the bullish trend can come back. Therefore, investors should stand aside and observe the next movements of the market.
30
8月
August’s data shows an opposite tendency between internal and external factors. On one hand, the impact of recent fiscal measures, such as the VAT reduction and the increase in the base salary, on consumer confidence seems to be effective. Domestic consumption has renewed its acceleration this month alongside hotter inflation steaming from food and traffic indices. On the other hand, export turnover declined at a more significant pace in August. It is worth noting that the export value of August last year was a historic high, mainly originating from the explosive U.S. and EU consumption after a long period of pandemic. The situation has changed significantly from the peak when retailers and wholesalers fell into overstocking, resulting in fewer new orders to manufacturing hubs, including Vietnam. Hence, we believe that it will take more time for Vietnam’s economy to rely its growth engine on external factors.
29
8月
Although the reversal for the downtrend is still not confirmed, new long positions for swing trading are not recommended due to the upcoming volatile period. The bullish move would come back only when 1,240 pts zone is broken.
29
8月
Interest rates in the money market continued sticking to their lows this week due to the minimal improvement in the first lending market. However, in alignment with the government’s call for economic re-acceleration, SBV this week issued Circular No. 10/2023/TT-NHNN on suspending the effectiveness of restrictive measures, mentioned in clauses 8, 9, and 10 of Article 8 of Circular No. 39/2016/TT-NHNN, to facilitate lending to the private sector. We expect SBV’s decision to ease a few requirements for borrowers and improve credit performance for the next months. In the notable development, USDVND rose by 0.80% compared to last week, possibly due to higher demand for forward contracts and a stronger DXY following the speech of the Fed’s chairman.
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
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