29
8月
In general, outflow across Vietnam’s ETF intensified strongly while an absence of signs of demand resurgence. In this case, selling pressure could be active in upcoming weeks due to the high level of divestment as well as demand has low probability to fade supply in the short-term.
29
8月
The correction from the major market has negatively impacted the Cover Warrant market. However, volume and trading value were not decreased strongly which is the good sign for the upcoming recovery.
29
8月
The downside risk is still present as the VNIndex closes below the 20-period moving average. Therefore, investors should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signals. In the next sessions, if the VNIndex remains above 1,200-pts with high liquidity, the selling signal formed on August 18, 2023 may be not right.
28
8月
We initiate our coverage on TCB with a BUY rating and a target price of VND43,700, implying a 30% upside buy using a residual approach (50%) and P/B method (50%). TTM PB is at trough of 0.7x and we believe it is worth of trading at 1.1x PB driven by earnings turnaround in 2024-25F. TCB growth is taking a breath, made worse by the corporate bond crisis and real estate market stagnation. Against the odds, we believe it is just a temporary period of trouble.
28
8月
In this scenario, investors should decrease their long positions to the safety threshold and await buying signals.
28
8月
In the short term, the downside risk is still present as the VNIndex closes below the 20-period moving average. Therefore, investors should reduce the portion of stock in their portfolios and wait for the next signals. In the next sessions, if the VNIndex surpasses the important resistance level of 1,200 pts with high liquidity, the selling signal formed on August 18, 2023 may be not right.
28
8月
Although the reversal for the downtrend is still not confirmed, new long positions for swing trading are not recommended due to the upcoming volatile period.
25
8月
To fulfill the urge of the Prime Minister in minister meetings, the SBV rewards the attendees with the amendment cited in Circular 10/2023 on late 23 Aug. By suspending three sub-articles 8,9,10, the SBV removes the metaphorical meaning and exposes the lenders to more discretion in setting the disbursement terms and conditions. We expect Circular 10 could facilitate the loan growth to real estate sectors and benefit the developers and homebuyers.
25
8月
Although the reversal for the downtrend is still not confirmed, new long positions for swing trading are not recommended due to the upcoming volatile period.
25
8月
The downside risk is still present as the VNIndex still ends below the 20-period moving average. Therefore, investors should reduce the portion of stock in their portfolios and wait for the next signals. In the next sessions, if the VNIndex surpasses the important resistance level of 1,200 pts with high liquidity, the selling signal formed at the end of the previous week may be not right.
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
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