研究中心

Economic activities remain strong in the second quarter with an unexpectedly high growth rate due to the fruitful trade and recovering domestic consumption. Given this momentum, we predict that Vietnam’s economy to accelerate in the next quarter. However, the recession would possibly lower economic performance than expected through the global value chain transmission. For Vietnam stock market, we expect that the VNIndex would form a new trough thanks to solid macro indicators and the analysis of cycles and patterns of the VNIndex. Accordingly, the index would possibly reach the threshold of 1,300-1,400 points in 3Q22.

S&P recently upgraded Vietnam’s sovereign credit rating to BB+, the highest level in the speculative-grade group. This development opens the chance for Vietnam to reach the investment-grade level soon, implying potential inflows from foreign investors through the portfolio investment, especially in the government debt market. Indonesia’s success in attracting foreign capital into the capital market by showing investors its commitment to a transparent and sustained capital market was a valuable lesson for Vietnam.

Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.

Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.