研究中心

The market increases slightly during the session with the declining liquidity, showing investors’ caution sentiment. However, the uptrend is still positive as the VNIndex maintains to close above the 50-period moving average. Therefore, investors should hold long positions and wait for the next signals.

The super-low interest rate phenomenon in the money market endures for the third consecutive week when lending performance in the first market improved insignificantly. SBV held its OMO inactive for the second consecutive month under the liquidity excessiveness and the government’s preference for easing measures. On the FX market, USDVND continued facing upward pressure when the negative spread in interest rate between the dong and the greenback was mounting demand for the carry trade activities. However, the increase in the exchange rate was moderate under the strong supply stemming from trade surplus and FDI inflow.

This quarterly earnings report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the earning growth trend in the steel market. We expect to see a challenging quarter for steel makers when the ASP is lower and the demand is expected to be weak due to rainy season. The input prices are expected to increase and margins are expected to be slightly hit in 3Q23. 2Q23 total sales volume is in line with our forecast (6.0mn tonnes vs 6.1 tonnes – KIS forecast). We expect to continue to see the weak demand in 3Q23F due to rainy season. We forecast the total sales volume in 3Q23F will be 5.8mn tonnes +8% yoy, -9% qoq.

July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.

PAN reached the net revenue of VND2.8tn in 2022, fell by 12% yoy, met 35% of 2023 guidance. In which, seafood contributed 43%, agriculture contributed 42% and packaged foods contributed 15%. In 2H23, PAN’s management expected that high. Seafood segment recorded the increasing number of export orders since late-May, thus PAN expects sales to recover on the quarterly basis.demand of rice will enable high selling price of paddy seeds for the Summer-Autumn season. 2H23 is the peak season of confectionery sales with Mid-Autumn and Tet holiday preparation.

HAG reached the net revenue of VND1.5tn in 2Q23, which rose by 18% yoy and downed 15% qoq, the 6M23 accumulated revenue was VND3.1tn, upped 55% and met 62% of 2023 guidance. Net profit dropped by 62% yoy to VND102bn, mainly due to the increase by VND987bn of general and administration expenses compared to 2Q22. In which, HAG reversed the provision for trade receivables in 2Q22.

Minor correction has high probability to occur. New positions should be placed if there is the minor correction or the short-term range bound. Thus, traders should stay on the sidelines in order to capture the best bid/offer (Hourly chart).

The stock market reverses to go down in the afternoon and liquidity remains at a high level. Although, profit-taking pressure intensifies strongly at the end, the short-term uptrend is still intact. Therefore, investors should hold long positions and wait for the next signals.

The market still increases strongly by more than 1% during the season with the liquidity records at a high level. Besides, the VNIndex continuously surpasses the important resistance level of the 1,200-pts and 1,220-pts with high liquidity, showing positive signals. Therefore, investors should hold long positions and wait for the next signal.

LTG reached the net revenue of VND3.7tn in 2Q23, which rose by 4% yoy and 50% qoq, the 6M23 accumulated revenue was VND6.1tn, +4% yoy. Revenue from rice in 6M23 contributed to 68% of total revenue, that increased 24% yoy, meanwhile plant production products (25% revenue) collapsed by 23% and seeds (5% sales) fell by 10%.