22
9月
Selling pressure comes back and intensifies during the session, causing the stock market to decrease strongly by more than 1% with improved liquidity. The downside risk is still present as the VNIndex closed above the 20-period moving average. Therefore, investors should stand aside and carefully observe the next movements of the market.
21
9月
The stock market recoveries significantly during the session with liquidity at a normal level, showing positive signals. However, the downside risk is still intact as selling pressure around the important resistance zone of 1,240-1,250 pts may appear again. Therefore, investors should stand aside and carefully observe the next movements of the market.
21
9月
The volatile period is active as well as bullish momentum is no longer exist. Thus, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for valid signal in upcoming contract.
21
9月
On Sep 19, we attend Ho Chi Minh City Infrastructure Investment (CII) Extraordinary General Meeting. The company presented to the investors their plan to amend the company business line and to develop new infrastructure projects. The company failed to organize the meeting due to only ~200 investors attended, represent 31.2% of the voting shares.
19
9月
Selling pressure came back strongly again and was spread evenly across most warrants with different underlying assets. However, demand is still anchored at a high level with the positive of the underlying market expected to have positive impacts on the CW market in the next time.
19
9月
massive outflow in 7 consecutive weeks has raised the red flag for the unstable flow of money in Vietnam. In this case, we expect that the flow of money across Vietnam could continue to be unstable in upcoming period and outflow could continue to be active.
19
9月
The money market held a silent tone this week, while the volatility in the FX market rose heading to the September FOMC next week. Overnight interbank rates stayed at nearly zero, representing excessive liquidity and slowing lending performance. USDVND renewed its upturn with a significant increase of 0.78% compared to last week. The persistence in negative swap spread and rising demand for import peak season may explain FX movement this week.
19
9月
The volatile period is active as well as bullish momentum is no longer exist. Thus, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for valid signal in upcoming contract.
19
9月
Selling pressure intensifies during the session, causing the stock market to have a deep loss day by more than 1%. That means the downside risk is still intact. Therefore, investors should stand aside and carefully observe the next movements of the market.
18
9月
Although the high volatile period is active and the current bullish swing is paused, the wider charts still support the bullish trend and the bearish reversal could not occur in the short-term. However, market leg is still unclear. Thus, investors should continue hold the current positions on leading stocks but margin trading should be avoided during this period.
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
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