04
10月
The opening gap on 22 Sep provided the bad entry point for the VN30F2310. Thus, new short positions are risky and selling point carries bad risk/reward ratio. Oversold condition is reached as well as volatile period is active. Thus, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the favorable trading point.
03
10月
Total Aug steel sales volume posted 134,778 tonnes, surged by 32.7% yoy and increased by 4.9% mom. Steel coat volume made up 81.8% of the May total sales volume at 110,250 tonnes, +9.6% mom and +47.3% yoy.
03
10月
Selling pressure decreased strongly in the recent sessions but demand is still weak, causing the stock market to close around the reference point with liquidity remaining at a low level. This means investors’ sentiment is still quite cautious. Besides, the downside risk is still intact due to the VNIndex maintaining to end below the 50-period moving average. Therefore, investors should reduce a portion of stocks in their portfolio to the safety threshold and wait for the next signal.
03
10月
Total August steel sales volume posted 75,474 tonnes, increasing 35.2% yoy and decreasing 4.3% mom. Steel coat volume made up 88% of the May total sales volume at 66,445 tonnes, +53.9% yoy, -1.8% mom. The coated steel export volume (48,686 tonnes) slightly decreased by 2.7% mom but rose 68.1% yoy.
03
10月
Total August steel sales volume posted 600,992 tonnes, decreased by 8.7% mom and 15.7% yoy. Construction steel volume decreased to 306,943 tonnes, -20.7% yoy, +17.6% mom. The coated steel sales volume (11,952 tonnes) halved by 58.2% yoy, -62.9% mom. The steel coil sales volume (HRC) was 241,402 tonnes (+3.4% yoy -17.1% mom). In which, export volume returned to 114,165 tonnes in August.
03
10月
Open interest stays below 50,000 contracts, implying the slowdown of bearish momentum. Oversold condition is reached as well as volatile period is active. New short positions are risky and selling point carries bad risk/reward ratio. Thus, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the favorable trading point.
03
10月
We expect that the inflow across Vietnam could decrease in upcoming quarters due to the diminish of demand on foreign ETFs, but the net flow would be flat cause the outflow on ETFs could be covered by the inflow from others.
03
10月
The next time, the CW market is likely to "cool down" as the underlying market has confirmed a short-term consolidation phase.
03
10月
Long-term, fast growth in demand for electricity opens up a lot of opportunities for industries in the power system. Regarding the power generation activity, especially, we highly evaluate the growth potential of the two sources of gas turbiness and wind power in the mid- and long-term based on analyzing the two fundamental characteristics of the power system in terms of (1) stability and (2) economic efficiency. we rate BUY on NT2 (TP: VND29,400, upside: +20%), QTP (VND23,400, upside: +54%), and HOLD on GEG (VND13,000). In addition, we positively value POW's growth potential after 2024, when NT3 and NT4 plants begin commercial operation.
03
10月
The money market this week witnessed several corrections following SBV’s bill offerings. Interbank rates seemed bottom out with overnight and one-week tenors increasing by 15bps and 30bps compared to the end of the previous week, respectively. More relevantly, the interest rate for 1-month tenor halted the downturn and even popped up to 1.20% p.a. in some trading points. Similarly, the 10-year G-bond yield rose by 8bps with a 2-time-higher trading value, indicating a significant shift in the appetite of fixed-income investors. Notably, USDVND, the cause of recent SBV’s OMO practices as per our prediction, cooled down by 0.12% compared to last week. We predict the upward pressure on interbank rates to increase when SBV probably issues more bills.
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
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