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SBV weights more on exchange rate stability

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28

9月

SBV weights more on exchange rate stability

SBV returned to withdraw money market through its Bill issuances this week, signaling that the central bank navigated its effort partly to stabilize the increasing exchange rate. It is worth noting that counterparties were excited to offerings with high participation (13 participants for each auction session) and relatively low winning yields (0.5-0.6% p.a.). This situation seems to reflect the liquidity excessiveness of the banking system. SBV’s decision likely originates from the upward pressure of USDVND that could endure due to the high import season and the persistent USD-VND rate differentials.

Report (57)

28

9月

Daily derivatives: Heading to 1,100 pts zone

Oversold condition is reached as well as volatile period is active. New short positions are risky and selling point carries bad risk/reward ratio. Thus, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the favorable trading point.

Report (376)

26

9月

Daily derivatives: Strong selling activity

Oversold condition is reached as well as volatile period is active. New short positions are risky and selling point carries bad risk/reward ratio. Thus, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the favorable trading point.

Report (376)

26

9月

Fundflow 18-22 Sep: Outflow is paused

Massive outflow in 7 consecutive weeks has raised the red flag for the unstable flow of money in Vietnam. In this case, we expect that the flow of money across Vietnam could continue to be unstable in upcoming period and outflow could continue to be active.

Report (86)

26

9月

Market commentary: Selling pressure intensifies suddenly

High selling pressure still maintained during the session, causing the stock market to have the 3rd consecutive deep loss session with high liquidity. Besides, the VNIndex still closes above the 50-period moving average, showing the downside risk is intact. Therefore, investors should reduce a portion of stocks in their portfolio to the safety threshold and focus on leading stocks.

Report (355)

25

9月

Chart of the day: Demand is weak

Short-term correction period is confirmed and the bullish swing could not come back in the short-term. Besides, market leg is still unclear and demand is weak. Thus, investors should stay on the sidelines and wait for more valid signal for the upcoming trend.

Report (137)

25

9月

Covered warrant 18-22 Sep: The CW market is still vibrancy

Selling pressure decreased significantly and was spread evenly across most warrants with different underlying assets. However, demand is still anchored at a high level with the positive of the underlying market expected to have positive impacts on the CW market in the next time.

Report (214)

25

9月

Market commentary: : Red Bear dominates the market

Selling pressure remains present during the session, causing the stock market to remain in a deep loss session with liquidity increasing suddenly. Besides, the VNIndex also closes below both the important support level of 1,200 pts and the 20-period moving average, showing a bearish signal. Therefore, investors should reduce a portion of stocks in their portfolio to the safety threshold and focus on leading stocks.

Report (355)

25

9月

Daily derivatives: Correction period

Oversold condition is reached as well as volatile period is active. New short positions are risky and selling point carries bad risk/reward ratio. Thus, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the favorable trading point.

Report (376)

22

9月

Daily derivatives: Selling pressure shows no sign of weakness

The volatile period is active as well as bullish momentum is no longer exist. Thus, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for valid signal VN30F2310 after the consolidation phase.

Report (376)
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Featured Articles

24

8月

U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports

U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.

Report (198)

02

8月

An improved economic performance amidst easing external headwinds

July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.

Report (197)

28

7月

Vietnam’s economy: gaining momentum

Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.

Report (195)

13

7月

3Q23 Strategic Insight: Embrace the opportunity

Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.

Report (197)

30

6月

Slight pickup amidst persistent global challenges

GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.

Report (195)

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Phone: (84-28) 3914-8585. Fax: (84-28) 3821-6898. Email: isprime@kisvn.vn

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