VPB 1Q20 net profit skyrocketed by 63% yoy to VND2.3tn. Double corporate bond portfolio drove 1Q20 credit growth to be industry outliner at 7.9%. We maintain BUY given expectation that (1) the liquidity may loosen in coming quarters and (2) debt-servicing-capacity of customer may regain following lockdown removal.
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.